How Many Calories Are In Toblerone

Vaporware

In what are called Main Stream Media is now rare to see a glimmer of truth leaked. When this happens for some reason, the event ends up bouncing from one side of the network, described and presented with a certain awe, as if it were the discovery of the Holy Grail.

In a recent post zerohedge is linked to a film based on Fox Business News in which he feels Dan Shaffer, head of Shaffer Asset Management said the following sentence and revealing:

"Something strange has happened in the last 7 or 8 weeks. Doreen , you will probably agree on this - there was a power below the market continued to sustain operations on futures. note futures every day and every moment, and a tremendous amount of volume has come at different times during the last few weeks, when the market was about to break it back up again. Usually at the end of the day - it happened a week ago on Friday, 4 to 7 minutes, almost 100000 contrite about S & P futures were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes before 4, 100,000 contracts were traded other, supporting and leading the Dow to a loss of 18 points to go up 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes . It takes 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in this way. Who has the amount of money needed to move this market?

addition, the market has risen during the period of uncertainty of the stress test by increasing the value of the shares of the banking sector, and banks have issued new shares - have recovered capital during the rally. It 'was a ploy by manual control of the market - now that the shares have been issued ... "

E 'comforting to note that a minimum of truth slip out every now and then from the FOX channels. The other guests of the program have joined the concerns put forward by Shaffer: Doreen lamenting the low volumes of trade that has characterized the market in this uptrend, Richard Suttmeier announcing the end of the recent rally because of bad fundamental .

matter how still missing at the end of this phase of positive lists one thing is certain: the powers that have committed body and soul in an attempt to shore up markets and destroy anyone scommettesse downward not have infinite ammo. Large U.S. banks have managed to recover capital market without having to sell off their shares. Goldman, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have announced their intention to repay the money received by TARP to pay a total of 45 banks among the 3 billion dollars.

Citigroup increased forecasts on future earnings at Goldman, the latter recommended to its clients to buy shares of Bank of America, basing their optimistic forecasts "on another solid quarter planned for the property market and financial "as suggested, he said, levels of activity observed in the first three months of the year. Without considering the recommendation to buy, again by Goldman, the shares of State Street Corp (a of large U.S. banks that received money through the TARP) when its Goldman - along with Morgan Stanley - has been asked by State Street to manage its share issue to the value of $ 1.5 billion.

The entire banking system in short, seems to be working for self-sustaining trying to repair their balance sheets until the market due "helped" hold.

The reality is, as always, less rosy than Goldman or someone you go around telling. The chart below taken from chartoftheday shows the trend in revenues for the securities of the S & P 500:

A trend that bode well for the near future. Another extremely interesting because it reveals the TrimTabs Investment Research in an article in MarketWatch . According to TrimTabs that monitors the new share issues, repurchases by the Company and purchases and sales of shares by insiders and managers of high-level prospects would be bleak.

Last week there was an offer of new shares equivalent to 31.3 billion dollars, the highest level in this decade. Against this there would be no acquisition by insiders. Instead, they would sell shares in the amount of $ 500 million. TimTrabs draws the following result:

"Il messaggio che la "casa" sta inviando è chiaro -- gli investitori dovrebbero abbandonare il mercato azionario".

Peter Eliades la cui news letter, Stockmarket Cycles, ha ottenuto il secondo miglior risultato nel 2008 ha recentemente detto :

"Pensiamo che questo mercato sia in pericolo, forse in grande pericolo, ancora una volta. Sappiamo che può sembrare drammatico, ma il fatto che gli indici e i valori medi si siano bloccati dove lo hanno fatto, rende più evidente l'analogia tra il 1930-31 ed il periodo attuale. Fino a quando ed a meno che, nuovi massimi non siano stabiliti, è nostra convinzione che questo mercato sia diretto verso nuovi minimi per l'anno in progress and more quickly than many believe possible. "

economic data of the first quarter of the year are anything but comforting. In Europe, Eurostat has released the change in GDP for the countries of . Half a massacre (click on chart to enlarge):

What makes doing hope politicians and economists are of the information on orders that have found a slight improvement in recent times, particularly so those of Germany, the locomotive of Europe, whose economy has always been a bit 'towed the rest of the Union. In the chart below you can see how the fall in new orders has cominciato a rallentare sensibilmente già dai primi mesi dell'anno.

Questi primi segnali di miglioramento si sono riflessi sull'indice di fiducia dei mercati, quel fattore impalpabile che influenza pesantemente l'economia e che sembra essere diventato la principale preoccupazione dei politici di mezzo mondo.

Anche'esso ha subito una chiara inversione di tendenza, la prima da quasi due anni. Purtroppo però, la fiducia dei mercati è un elemento estremamente volubile capace di invertire andamento molto rapidamente nel caso di un nuovo crollo dei mercati.

Quello che sta sostenendo la domanda industriale ed in buona parte l'economia reale, sono gli interventi economici operati dagli stati ed il calare delle scorte delle aziende a seguito di un periodo in cui i nuovi acquisti da parte di esse si erano pressoché azzerati. Sempre meglio che niente, ma non stiamo certo parlando dell'indicazione di una sostanziale ripresa economica. Rimane ad esempio l'inevasa questione su cosa accadrà una volta che gli interventi statali si saranno esauriti. Il rapporto tra debito-PIL degli stati è destinato ad allargarsi in maniera spaventosa da qui a due anni secondo l'FMI. Il paese messo peggio è il Giappone che dovrebbe arrivare nel 2010 ad avere un rapporto del 227%, ma al secondo posto ci siamo noi con rapporto previsto al 2010 del 121%.

If memory serves me correctly when the pound came under attack and left the EMS in the 90 years leading the country a stone's throw from the default, the debt ratio was 118%. So we still had business to "privatize" and a middle class by taxing and harass. Today we have Europe and the euro acting as a buffer, but it remains to be seen whether it will be sufficient.

When this artificial rally will run out finally, disappearing in a puff of steam, all it will be the economic fundamentals. The interventions of the various states are unlikely to offset the continued deterioration in the housing market, the drop in consumption and credit. Even if the fundamentals were settle, they will not low at a level sufficient to support a stable employment. The S & P expects the next 12-18 months, unemployment in the USA ranges between 9.7% and the 11, 7%.

This crisis will not end anytime soon.

Pet Friendly Lake George Ny

Fantasy

There was a TV show, broadcast in the eighties, which focused on a strange island that can fulfill any desire. Each episode a group of tourists went on this secluded resort on board a small plane. After landing they were greeted by the mysterious and distinct Mr. Roarke that used the mysterious characteristics of the island was able to concedere ai suoi ospiti, per il tempo di un episodio, la possibilità di realizzare ogni loro segreta fantasia: potevano diventare quello che avevano sempre desiderato, vivere in qualunque periodo storico ed in qualsiasi luogo, fosse esso realmente esistente o meno.

I villeggianti trascorrevano un breve periodo cullandosi felici all'interno di un esistenza irreale ritagliata su misura. Terminata la vacanza però, la realtà, implacabile tornava a fare capolino, dissolvendo ogni fantasia costringendo i turisti a tornare al mondo reale, portandosi dietro, se erano stati fortunati, qualche importante lezione di vita.

La situazione dell'economia mondiale sembra ricordare perfettamente un episodio di Fantasilandia .

Obama, Berlusconi , Tremonti , Geithner , tanto per fare qualche nome, sono concordi nell'affermare che il peggio sia passato e la ripresa economica sia dietro l'angolo. Il comitato monetario della banca centrale inglese ha recentemente dichiarato di aspettarsi una ripresa a V dell'economia, cioè una risalita che sia altrettanto rapida di quanto sia stato il tracollo e ieri ci si è messo pure il capo della BCE a spargere ottimismo ai quattro venti:

Ci stiamo avvicinando, per quanto riguarda la crescita, ad un punto di svolta. - ha detto Trichet ,a margine della riunione dei banchieri G10 central bank at the headquarters of International Settlements - In any case we are seeing a slowdown in the fall of GDP, and in some cases you can already see a recovery. "

The reasons supporting this position are many first of all the upside of the stock, especially that of America which has experienced a +40% from the lows touched in March. Another factor that is leading to hopes that both political economists is the recent increase in orders of the industry. One for all in Europe, the German figure :

In March, German manufacturing orders rose by 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted monthly . The figure 'above the consensus of economists (+0.5%). It is also the first positive sign since August 2008 (+2.6%). Positives and orders from the channel domestic (+1.1%) and those from the channel and external (+5.6%). This was communicated by the Federal Statistical Office.

The effect of this increase is being felt even in Italy would, at least according Scajola . The minister said that the production activities on export Italian data indicate an increase in orders from abroad of 3.5% for the month of March. said April 27 Scajola :

The measures the government have been useful. E 'comment of the Minister of' productive Claudio Scajola in Turin for the shareholders of API (Association of small local industries). ''Gia 'data of March and then the data in April - said Scajola - are pointing out clearly that there is' a reversal. The overall data for the quarter are still negative - he added - but those on the car especially in March and the total damage on the export industry and a sign of slight recovery, which suggests that the government's measures were useful and that the international economic downturn is coming to an end. And so 'we hope.'' Economic data released

Yesterday however, suggests a less rosy reality:

Istat also defines a "drop too high" that recorded by the industrial production in March, is set back from the previous month and 4.6% in the first quarter of 2009 was lost 9.8% over the previous quarter. Strong also the downward trend: compared to the same month last year, actually refers to ISTAT, production fell by 23.8% (this is a correct figure, as there were 22 days compared with 20 of March 2008 is 18.2% instead of the raw data).

As for the data in February, given the trend correctly is still the lowest ever reached in the series Historical Istat (1990, with the first annual data in January 1991).

And next month, according to Confindustria forecasts, will not be better: the Research Center estimated in April decreased by 23.1%, in line with the trend of March 2008 (-23.8%). On a monthly basis in April, Confindustria calculates a rebound in industrial production of 1, 5% on March. The raw data indicate a change in April by 23.2% year on year.

Although the latest data on the real economy not report anything positive in the hope of finally having gone beyond the stage of greatest suffering has not died. A series of economic indicators have shown improvement in recent weeks and did evoke a recovery that could leave the United States, the epicenter of this crisis.

The latest figures of the U.S. labor department showed a loss of jobs in the month of April, amounted to 539,000 units, against a decline of 663,000 in the month of March. A diagram contained in the report of ' ADP of April, showing the U.S. unemployment data adjusted by the agricultural sector (and other minor sectors like no profit organizations and general government employees) and graphically displays more clearly this turnaround:

A loss of 491,000 jobs work in April against 741,000 the previous month according to data of ' ADP, or if you prefer to use the overall level of BLS of 539,000 against 663,000, is a positive development that was greeted with some optimism. Although unemployment has continued to rise and touched the 8, 9% in April, compared with 8, 5% in March, the rate of this decline shows a marked slowdown, the causes are identified by many in a general improvement economy.

Other data in the same direction. For example, the new orders of durable goods in the U.S. fell by 0.8% in March, a fall below market expectations, according to statistics del dipartimento al Commercio. Anche l'indice di fiducia dei consumatori americani corrobora le dichiarazioni ottimiste di politici e banchieri centrali. Secondo il Conference Board degli Stati Uniti, l'indice è salito ad Aprile a 39,2 punti, 12,3 punti in più rispetto ai 26,9 toccati a Marzo. Gli analisti si aspettavano che si assestasse a 29 punti.

E l'elenco di dati che rivelano un miglioramento generale potrebbe continuare ancora a lungo.

Ciò detto, l'euforia che trapela dalle dichiarazioni dall'establishment economico e politico mondiale mi sembra eccessiva oltre che prematura.

Per quel che riguarda il rialzo dei listini, a partire da quelli USA, nulla mi toglie from the head that we are facing a classic " sucker rally." A temporary rise in a general downward trend, upward which usually attracts a crowd of investors, attracted by the prospect of easy money which usually end with the heavy cash losses as soon as the rally runs out.

The voices that speak of " sucker rally" is little but stand firmly among the chorus of analysts who shouts, "Buy the worst is over!" (CNBC the USA is the perfect example of this attitude). I consider two of the most influential are those of David Rosenberg and Ambrose Evans - Pritchard .

Anche Tyler Durden , pseudonimo del gruppo di individui che gestisce il blog zerohedge , ha più volte messo in guardia sulla situazione dei mercati. Qualche giorno fa ha descritto, su seekingalpha , un anomalia che riguarda la borsa Newyorkese . Tyler ha riportato due grafici sul volume del NYSE (New York Stock Exchange ) e li ha confrontati: il primo riguarda quel periodo del 2003 che vide l'inizio della scorsa ripresa economica, il secondo il recente rally:

The black line, indicating the high and low index in the first graph has a strongly fluctuating trend, a sign of a vibrant business purchases and sales. In the second graph the other hand, we are faced with a line running from March 9 onwards is almost flat.

One of the most popular explanation (though certainly not mainstream ) which tends to provide for the strange pattern is very simple: the market would be "manipulated".

few large players in a coordinated manner WOULD BE supporting the market driving up the bags. The impetus it would give positive results (at least on paper) of the financial sector and large banks, wake of changes to the rules of "mark to market" and thanks to the various "adjustments" of budgets. The rising stock market would trigger a giant " short squeeze " destroying all those who still had some short positions, forcing them to buy the securities needed to cover those positions (in the case of Mike Morgan for example, threw in the towel giving up work in exchange for others accused of having transformed the market from irrational "criminal").

reconstruction that goes well with some data that provides Pritchard. The securities on which were open le più numerose posizioni short (al ribasso) hanno avuto un rialzo del 70%. Quelli ritenuti maggiormente solidi invece sono saliti solo del 21%. Teun Draaisma della Morgan Stanley , definito guru per quel che riguardo il mercato azionario, si dice convinto che il rialzo degli ultimi mesi sia destinato a terminare presto, facendo notare che nessuno degli indicatori che utilizza per individuare i trend futuri sia tornato in territorio positivo.

Un altro segnale che dovrebbe suscitare diffidenza è l'eccessiva euforia degli analisti. Secondo il Barron 's Big Money Poll , un survey twice a year in spring and autumn, 59% of investment managers surveyed are "bullish " that sees a rise in the future of the market, while only 13% have a pessimistic view. Draaisma notes that the collapse of U.S. real estate market has historically taken 42 months to complete their decline, while at present we are only 26 months since the crisis in the sector. Even

economic fundamentals remain bad. Although there are tentative signs of improvement in the data should not be misunderstood. An increase in orders was largely predictable once the inventories of companies had been disposed of as actually happened in early this year. We are not necessarily facing a significant signs of recovery. Although the contraction of an economic indicator of 20% (for example) is certainly better than a drop of 30%, again we are talking of a decline. The unemployment rate is rising for 16 consecutive months, the U.S. GDP fell by 6.1% in the first quarter, against 6.3% the previous quarter, far exceeding the expectations of analysts who predicted a -4 , 7%. Without a recovery in real GDP is hard to imagine a real and sustainable market recovery or in the words of Rosenberg :

We think it is ironic that there is a plurality of portfolio managers così " bullish " quando la loro previsione collettiva di crescita, pari al 2%, rappresenterebbe la seconda più debole ripresa mai registrata, metà della quale è tipica di un auto-sostenuto bull market e ben al di sotto del tasso di crescita medio storicamente registrato, pari a circa il 3%.

Se come tutto fa presagire, i recenti rialzi di borsa configurano un " sucker rally" i listini nel prossimo futuro subiranno un calo che potrebbe trasformarsi in tracollo dato il contenuto volume degli scambi. Quando un evento del genere possa verificarsi è difficile da dire. Se dovessi buttarmi annusando l'aria (e dico annusando l'aria, perché con tutta la buona volontà in un mercato come quello attuale l'analisi tecnica dei mercati e dei fondamentali può fornire indicazioni fino ad un certo punto) direi a breve, probabilmente verso luglio-agosto, quando la soglia di attenzione della gente tende ad abbassarsi.

Russell Napier , uno storico esperto dei mercati "bear" ed autore del libro " Anatomy of the Bear", dice su ftalphaville che l'attuale fase di stabilizzazione probabilmente durerà per un paio di anni, dato che il pericolo di deflazione sembra essere ormai scongiurato, ma avverte che il fondo non è ancora stato toccato. Esso verrà raggiunto quando i rendimenti sui buoni del tesoro a 10 anni arriveranno a toccare il 6% valore a cui storicamente tende a collassare il mercato azionario.

Non sono d'accordo con l'analisi delle tempistiche di Napier , ma su una cosa ha perfettamente ragione. Il rendimento dei buoni del tesoro USA e la dinamica degli acquisti diretti eseguiti dalla FED , contrapposti a quelli effettuati dai compratori storici come la Cina, è un fattore da seguire con attenzione. Un 6% di rendimento sarebbe come gridare a pieni polmoni "dislocazione". La banca centrale cinese nel suo ultimo rapporto trimestrale si è lamentata per il rischio di inflazione globale che le coordinate operazioni di "quantitative easing " da parte delle maggiori banche centrali potrebbero scatenare. La preoccupazione dei cinesi è di vedere una progressiva erosione del valore delle proprie riserve. Un vecchio tormentone ormai. Il premier cinese si era già pubblicamente lamentato in Marzo a questo riguardo.

Sono pochi a ritenere che i cinesi possano cominciare a vendere assets denominati in dollari. Quello che preoccupa realmente è il tenore dei futuri acquisti di buoni del tesoro. Ogni mese la Cina accumula 40 miliardi di dollari che in qualche maniera deve essere investita. La strategia del paese asiatico sembra essersi modificata negli ultimi mesi. La Cina si è lanciata con veemenza nell'acquisto dei diritti di accesso ad alcune materie prime: petrolio, metalli, acqua.

Also on the domestic front, China is trying to support in every way the economic growth.

Recently, the Chinese manufacturing sector has recovered slightly. The latest GDP data show an increase of 6.1% in the first quarter compared to the same quarter last year. This figure alone would care about a nation that has always declared a need for at least an 8% growth - to absorb the supply of labor from the countryside and the flow of new graduates - even if not dramatic. Unfortunately, most economists come to admit that about 4% of that figure is due to the interventions made by government economic stimulus and that un altro 2-3% sia pressoché inesistente, un esagerazione nata dal desiderio dei burocrati statali di soddisfare le aspettative del governo centrale.

In sostanza, senza considerare gli interventi statali, la crescita cinese sarebbe praticamente azzerata. Interventi che in gran parte si sono materializzati sotto forma di credito alle imprese e di dictat emanati dal governo per impedire alle aziende di licenziare la manodopera in eccesso. Inizialmente la cifra che lo stato cinese promise di estendere alle aziende mediante il sistema bancario (sotto forma di credito) doveva essere per l'anno in corso di 732 miliardi di dollari. Solo nei primi tre mesi di quest'anno le 3 principali banche cinesi hanno concesso prestiti per un ammontare di 670 billion dollars, most of which were handed out to large state enterprises, as part of economic stimulus intervention of 586 billion dollars.

would remain so, less than $ 100 billion yet to be granted. That has generated deep concern among analysts. The recent holding of the Chinese economy is largely due to this flood of credit. If it were to stop the consequences could be deeply unpleasant. The Chinese government has had to run for cover, and has recently announced plans to further expand the availability of credit for the current year. It is said that the new target is between 1.1 and 1.3 trillion dollars.

China, therefore, as much of the planet, continues to follow the policy of taking time by supporting aggregate demand on the domestic front, thanks to state intervention and extending credit to companies and individuals through its banks, hoping that as the first ' Share global economy by saving them all.

If this does not occur the risk for Chinese banks would skyrocket. The loans made to unprofitable companies, unable to dismiss and rationalize their operations are risky loans. If a significant amount of the losses they would not be returned should not rest on the shoulders of state who happen to have already spent a good part of its resources. How many nor advanced to support the U.S. through the purchase of new Treasury bonds, remains to be seen.

The latest available data on sales of good U.S., revealed a significant loss of appetite on the part of the country's east.

This fact is increasing the pressure on Bernanke and the U.S. central bank forcing it to increase its purchases of Treasury bills in an attempt to keep yields down. Although the operations of "quantitative easing" conducted by the Fed, yields a good 10 years have risen 55 points since April 15 (the maximum in the last 6 months) the breaking strength of 3%.

Finally, the economy still faced problems the banking sector.

stress tests that were carried out 19 major American institutions under instructions of the U.S. Treasury, has proved to be yet another farce. Many of the economic conditions in the case considered the worst case scenario, have already been overtaken by reality. Also when ever you've heard the result of a decisive test like this has been the subject of "bargaining" with the same test subjects?

On the other hand, the situation of European banks, according to the IMF would be even worse than that of their American colleagues. The Fund estimates that banks in the Euro will have to register by the end of 2010, 750 billion dollars losses on toxic assets in their possession, as against 550 billion of estimated losses for U.S. banks.

Looking around in short, I do not think that any government has, until now, taken some effective solution that will truly have an impact on those issues that are the basis of the current economic crisis. Pritchard said with joy, that the global interest rate cut to zero and the adoption of quantitative easing by major central banks in the world (he has also just begun the ECB) will save us from disaster.

I hope he's right.

My impression, unfortunately, is that a number of politicians, economists and bankers is making a huge effort in a coordinated manner face painting a stunning setting, to convince us of the actual existence of a world which is simply a figment of their imagination, a place where we expect the economic recovery around the corner friendly with arms wide open. An illusion that can last a short time, the space of a vacation, before the Tattoo is to gently bring us back to reality.

Balancing Equations Calculator

The absolute first thing to say is that they are still alive and kicking.

Many have wondered what happened to. If I tried to write an accurate account of events would lead to an unnecessarily long and very boring story.

Wasting on just two words: after the Easter holidays I've had to abruptly leave Italy for a number of commitments (commitments I frankly underestimated). I spent a frantic couple of weeks abroad and upon my return I have also seen fit to get sick. Nothing serious, thankfully (I was not in Mexico), but enough to suck eliminate any desire to update the blog.

The result has been not to have published no posts in the last month. Meanwhile

success seems to be a bit 'of everything. Leaving aside the events of our own, those tragic as the earthquake in Italy in those pathetic as the story "sentimental" of our Prime Minister, in the economy seems to be calm returned. At least to hear how Mr Geithner and Tremonti who say with confidence that the worst of the economic crisis is behind us.

Some data actually show a slowdown in the rate at which the economy crashes. That surprisingly few. Remains to be seen how long the data will continue to show deterioration, albeit more modest, and how will it be before there is a real lift.

I do not see either of these events around the corner (they come back to it later).

They went out in recent weeks also results in the first quarter for the banking industry: all invariably higher than expected (a farce). The market, however, does not seem to be satisfied and struggles anxiously hoping that the results of stress tests - which should be released tomorrow - prove once and for all the exact conditions of the entire U.S. banking industry (which has already leaked out among the 19 banks examined only the JP Morgan does not seem to require additional capital).

The situation of the banks remains a central known to melt before we can seriously expect to get out of this crisis. We will see that surprises us through these famous tests, some of Geithner's strategy seems to be the same. Take time and hope that the economy, starting from the accounts of banks, unable to "grow" out of this crisis.

Chiudo qua questa breve comunicazione.

Da oggi e con la classica cadenza casuale (dovuta ad impegni, tempo a disposizione, condizioni di salute ecc) dovrei ricominciare ad aggiornare il blog.