In what are called Main Stream Media is now rare to see a glimmer of truth leaked. When this happens for some reason, the event ends up bouncing from one side of the network, described and presented with a certain awe, as if it were the discovery of the Holy Grail.
In a recent post zerohedge is linked to a film based on Fox Business News in which he feels Dan Shaffer, head of Shaffer Asset Management said the following sentence and revealing:
matter how still missing at the end of this phase of positive lists one thing is certain: the powers that have committed body and soul in an attempt to shore up markets and destroy anyone scommettesse downward not have infinite ammo. Large U.S. banks have managed to recover capital market without having to sell off their shares. Goldman, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have announced their intention to repay the money received by TARP to pay a total of 45 banks among the 3 billion dollars.
Citigroup increased forecasts on future earnings at Goldman, the latter recommended to its clients to buy shares of Bank of America, basing their optimistic forecasts "on another solid quarter planned for the property market and financial "as suggested, he said, levels of activity observed in the first three months of the year. Without considering the recommendation to buy, again by Goldman, the shares of State Street Corp (a of large U.S. banks that received money through the TARP) when its Goldman - along with Morgan Stanley - has been asked by State Street to manage its share issue to the value of $ 1.5 billion.
The entire banking system in short, seems to be working for self-sustaining trying to repair their balance sheets until the market due "helped" hold.
The reality is, as always, less rosy than Goldman or someone you go around telling. The chart below taken from chartoftheday shows the trend in revenues for the securities of the S & P 500:
In a recent post zerohedge is linked to a film based on Fox Business News in which he feels Dan Shaffer, head of Shaffer Asset Management said the following sentence and revealing:
"Something strange has happened in the last 7 or 8 weeks. Doreen , you will probably agree on this - there was a power below the market continued to sustain operations on futures. note futures every day and every moment, and a tremendous amount of volume has come at different times during the last few weeks, when the market was about to break it back up again. Usually at the end of the day - it happened a week ago on Friday, 4 to 7 minutes, almost 100000 contrite about S & P futures were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes before 4, 100,000 contracts were traded other, supporting and leading the Dow to a loss of 18 points to go up 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes . It takes 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in this way. Who has the amount of money needed to move this market?E 'comforting to note that a minimum of truth slip out every now and then from the FOX channels. The other guests of the program have joined the concerns put forward by Shaffer: Doreen lamenting the low volumes of trade that has characterized the market in this uptrend, Richard Suttmeier announcing the end of the recent rally because of bad fundamental .
addition, the market has risen during the period of uncertainty of the stress test by increasing the value of the shares of the banking sector, and banks have issued new shares - have recovered capital during the rally. It 'was a ploy by manual control of the market - now that the shares have been issued ... "
matter how still missing at the end of this phase of positive lists one thing is certain: the powers that have committed body and soul in an attempt to shore up markets and destroy anyone scommettesse downward not have infinite ammo. Large U.S. banks have managed to recover capital market without having to sell off their shares. Goldman, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have announced their intention to repay the money received by TARP to pay a total of 45 banks among the 3 billion dollars.
Citigroup increased forecasts on future earnings at Goldman, the latter recommended to its clients to buy shares of Bank of America, basing their optimistic forecasts "on another solid quarter planned for the property market and financial "as suggested, he said, levels of activity observed in the first three months of the year. Without considering the recommendation to buy, again by Goldman, the shares of State Street Corp (a of large U.S. banks that received money through the TARP) when its Goldman - along with Morgan Stanley - has been asked by State Street to manage its share issue to the value of $ 1.5 billion.
The entire banking system in short, seems to be working for self-sustaining trying to repair their balance sheets until the market due "helped" hold.
The reality is, as always, less rosy than Goldman or someone you go around telling. The chart below taken from chartoftheday shows the trend in revenues for the securities of the S & P 500:
A trend that bode well for the near future. Another extremely interesting because it reveals the TrimTabs Investment Research in an article in MarketWatch . According to TrimTabs that monitors the new share issues, repurchases by the Company and purchases and sales of shares by insiders and managers of high-level prospects would be bleak.
Last week there was an offer of new shares equivalent to 31.3 billion dollars, the highest level in this decade. Against this there would be no acquisition by insiders. Instead, they would sell shares in the amount of $ 500 million. TimTrabs draws the following result:
Peter Eliades la cui news letter, Stockmarket Cycles, ha ottenuto il secondo miglior risultato nel 2008 ha recentemente detto :
economic data of the first quarter of the year are anything but comforting. In Europe, Eurostat has released the change in GDP for the countries of . Half a massacre (click on chart to enlarge):
Last week there was an offer of new shares equivalent to 31.3 billion dollars, the highest level in this decade. Against this there would be no acquisition by insiders. Instead, they would sell shares in the amount of $ 500 million. TimTrabs draws the following result:
"Il messaggio che la "casa" sta inviando è chiaro -- gli investitori dovrebbero abbandonare il mercato azionario".
Peter Eliades la cui news letter, Stockmarket Cycles, ha ottenuto il secondo miglior risultato nel 2008 ha recentemente detto :
"Pensiamo che questo mercato sia in pericolo, forse in grande pericolo, ancora una volta. Sappiamo che può sembrare drammatico, ma il fatto che gli indici e i valori medi si siano bloccati dove lo hanno fatto, rende più evidente l'analogia tra il 1930-31 ed il periodo attuale. Fino a quando ed a meno che, nuovi massimi non siano stabiliti, è nostra convinzione che questo mercato sia diretto verso nuovi minimi per l'anno in progress and more quickly than many believe possible. "
economic data of the first quarter of the year are anything but comforting. In Europe, Eurostat has released the change in GDP for the countries of . Half a massacre (click on chart to enlarge):
What makes doing hope politicians and economists are of the information on orders that have found a slight improvement in recent times, particularly so those of Germany, the locomotive of Europe, whose economy has always been a bit 'towed the rest of the Union. In the chart below you can see how the fall in new orders has cominciato a rallentare sensibilmente già dai primi mesi dell'anno.
Questi primi segnali di miglioramento si sono riflessi sull'indice di fiducia dei mercati, quel fattore impalpabile che influenza pesantemente l'economia e che sembra essere diventato la principale preoccupazione dei politici di mezzo mondo.
Anche'esso ha subito una chiara inversione di tendenza, la prima da quasi due anni. Purtroppo però, la fiducia dei mercati è un elemento estremamente volubile capace di invertire andamento molto rapidamente nel caso di un nuovo crollo dei mercati.
Quello che sta sostenendo la domanda industriale ed in buona parte l'economia reale, sono gli interventi economici operati dagli stati ed il calare delle scorte delle aziende a seguito di un periodo in cui i nuovi acquisti da parte di esse si erano pressoché azzerati. Sempre meglio che niente, ma non stiamo certo parlando dell'indicazione di una sostanziale ripresa economica. Rimane ad esempio l'inevasa questione su cosa accadrà una volta che gli interventi statali si saranno esauriti. Il rapporto tra debito-PIL degli stati è destinato ad allargarsi in maniera spaventosa da qui a due anni secondo l'FMI. Il paese messo peggio è il Giappone che dovrebbe arrivare nel 2010 ad avere un rapporto del 227%, ma al secondo posto ci siamo noi con rapporto previsto al 2010 del 121%.
If memory serves me correctly when the pound came under attack and left the EMS in the 90 years leading the country a stone's throw from the default, the debt ratio was 118%. So we still had business to "privatize" and a middle class by taxing and harass. Today we have Europe and the euro acting as a buffer, but it remains to be seen whether it will be sufficient.
When this artificial rally will run out finally, disappearing in a puff of steam, all it will be the economic fundamentals. The interventions of the various states are unlikely to offset the continued deterioration in the housing market, the drop in consumption and credit. Even if the fundamentals were settle, they will not low at a level sufficient to support a stable employment. The S & P expects the next 12-18 months, unemployment in the USA ranges between 9.7% and the 11, 7%.
This crisis will not end anytime soon.
Quello che sta sostenendo la domanda industriale ed in buona parte l'economia reale, sono gli interventi economici operati dagli stati ed il calare delle scorte delle aziende a seguito di un periodo in cui i nuovi acquisti da parte di esse si erano pressoché azzerati. Sempre meglio che niente, ma non stiamo certo parlando dell'indicazione di una sostanziale ripresa economica. Rimane ad esempio l'inevasa questione su cosa accadrà una volta che gli interventi statali si saranno esauriti. Il rapporto tra debito-PIL degli stati è destinato ad allargarsi in maniera spaventosa da qui a due anni secondo l'FMI. Il paese messo peggio è il Giappone che dovrebbe arrivare nel 2010 ad avere un rapporto del 227%, ma al secondo posto ci siamo noi con rapporto previsto al 2010 del 121%.
If memory serves me correctly when the pound came under attack and left the EMS in the 90 years leading the country a stone's throw from the default, the debt ratio was 118%. So we still had business to "privatize" and a middle class by taxing and harass. Today we have Europe and the euro acting as a buffer, but it remains to be seen whether it will be sufficient.
When this artificial rally will run out finally, disappearing in a puff of steam, all it will be the economic fundamentals. The interventions of the various states are unlikely to offset the continued deterioration in the housing market, the drop in consumption and credit. Even if the fundamentals were settle, they will not low at a level sufficient to support a stable employment. The S & P expects the next 12-18 months, unemployment in the USA ranges between 9.7% and the 11, 7%.
This crisis will not end anytime soon.
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