Un altra settimana si apre all'insegna dell'incertezza sui mercati. La scorsa è stata teatro di una vera e propria carneficina nel settore bancario. Nulla di inatteso, almeno per quel che mi riguarda, trovo però preoccupante la rapidità con cui gli eventi stanno precipitando. Pritchard sul Telegraph prova a fare il punto della situazione : gli USA stanno perdendo mezzo milioni di posti di lavoro al mese, in Brasile solo a Dicembre ne sono evaporati 650000 mentre in Cina ammontano a 10 milioni le persone che hanno perso l'impiego dall'inizio dell'attuale crisi. Considerando i dati dell'ultimo quarto l'economia americana si è contratta del 6% l'anno, quella tedesca del 7%, Japanese 12%, and that koreana a frightening 22%.
Meanwhile the banking sectors across the world continue to turn over in an agony that seems to have no end. If Bank of America and Citigroup have proved to be the black hole that many suspected they were, personally, I am also waiting for the worms called Wells Fargo he gives us a few moments of suspense. Interviewed in December, before the recent banking disasters come to light, Meredith Whitney, one of the best analysts on the condition of banks, the question asked by a reporter on CNBC that the bank was made worse answered without hesitation: "Wells Fargo" .
Meanwhile, there is an ongoing debate about how to use i rimanenti 350 miliardi del TARP. L'ipotesi di creare una "bad bank" sembra aleggiare insistentemente tra gli scranni del parlamento americano. Paul Krugman neo premio nobel per l'economia, in una delle rare occasioni in cui ne condivido l'opinione, definisce la possibile istituzione di una "bad bank" come una forma di Wall Street voodo . La "bad bank" si occuperebbe di comprare tramite denaro prelevato dal TARP, tutti quegli assets andati a male che le banche si ritrovano in pancia. Si parla di almeno 100 miliardi che grazie ad un leverage di 10 volte garantito dalla Federal Reserve, fornirebbero 1000 miliardi complessivi alla "bad bank" per i suddetti acquisti. Il problema rimane, la valutazione di questi assets tossici. Lo stesso scoglio which broke up in October, the initial intentions of Paulson on how to use funds from TARP.
Soros summarizes the dilemma by saying the Obama :
Given the record, I expect Obama and his embark on the second street, in the belief that it is better to suffer less and longer (provided that it is actually possible).
British banks for their part, continue flirting with nationalization. The rescue plan, drafted by Brown, would extend the program to guarantee loans granted by banks in addition to providing an additional warranty on new loans of 50 billion pounds, ensures that the nationalized Northern Rock will extend loans to customers who show and promises to be worth the purchase of toxic assets to the amount of 50 billion pounds. This is essentially the usual half-measures. An attempt to avoid at all costs nationalization.
Pritchard concludes his analysis on the current situation, pointing out that it closely resembles that of early 1931. For once, however, can also see a bright side: at least not è ancora il 1933" dice. Obama secondo lui, si troverebbe ad affrontare una realtà migliore di quella che toccò a Roosevelt nel 33 ed avrebbe quindi, ancora un certo spazio di manovra a disposizione prima che tutto rischi di diventare ingestibile. In questo senso le scelte che il neo presidente compirà in futuro saranno fondamentali. Dovrà agire con decisione e senza commettere errori perchè, con tutta probabilità, non avrà a disposizione una seconda chance per evitare il precipitare degli eventi.
A proposito di eventi che precipitano: un retroscena interessante riguardo agli avvenimenti che coinvolsero il settore finanziario ad Ottobre, emerge da un articolo del daily mail . All'epoca arrivai a suggerire the readers of this blog to stock up on food. Perhaps someone will have thought it was too alarmist. Paul Myners, minister for the City, Friday, Oct. 10 revealed that the British banking system was found to step away from complete collapse. He was about to set off a frantic race to the banks. The government went into a state of emergency and prepared to implement a total ban on banking transactions which included: the complete closure of establishments, suspension of withdrawals and money transfers and subsequent nationalization of the entire banking sector.
Only frantic communications behind the scenes were able to prevent the bank run and the outbreak of panic. Needless to say, as a result of these statements, have come from many attacks on Lord Myners, who is accused of encouraging a sense of insecurity in the market.
Other statements that have done much to discuss, are those uttered last week by Timothy Geithner. Remember this name well, because often you will hear it say in the future. Belongs to the U.S. Treasury minister-designate. Former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Geithner has held various positions during his career of some significance and is considered a man of establishment ( here is a diagram with its connections). He was one of the main architects of the rescue of Bear Stearns this past spring. Held the post of Secretary Treasure in the Clinton administration under the supervision of Minister Robert Rubin and his successor Lawrence Summers. Rubin
Now, after spending years on the board of directors of Citigroup without noticing any problems in the conduct of the institute, resigned "voluntarily" to go to fill the role of adviser to Obama. Summers in turn presides over the white house, always behind the nomination of Obama, the National Economic Council, a powerful agency whose task is to supervise and give advice on the economic policy of the American administration.
These characters can hardly be considered a big change. They are certainly better than the outgoing minister and Paulson suoi amici. Per trovare di peggio, del resto, Obama avrebbe dovuto, probabilmente, cercare nell'averno. Difficilmente però, questi nuovi protagonisti della politica economica USA potranno contrastare in maniera decisa l'establishment economico, essendone stati membri.
E tanto per cominciare con il piede giusto il neo ministro Geithner, la scorsa settimana, in una nota rivolta al comitato finanziario del senato ha attaccato pubblicamente la Cina :
Dopo aver letto queste dichiarazioni molti si sono messi le mani nei capelli. Willem Buiter in un recente articolo intitolato: " Quando tutto il resto fallisce, dai la colpa alla Cina ", critica pesantemente l'aggressività mostrata da Geithner e dall'amministrazione USA. Una delle ragioni per cui Buiter ritiene vi sia speranza che l'attuale recessione globale non si trasformi in una seconda Grande Depressione è l'assenza di quella diffusa politica di dazi e barriere commerciali che fece la sua comparsa during the 30 years. Encouraging conflicts with stupid statements, in the midst of the current crisis, it would be anything but constructive and could lead to clashes from unpleasant consequences.
Other entities other hand, have accepted the charges of Geithner with enthusiasm. It 's the case of a group that represents American manufacturing industry, the U.S. Business and Industry Council, led by Kevin Kearns. Kearns took the ball and has invited the new government to erect trade barriers to imports of Chinese goods. Actually, Obama had already announced its intention to introduce a clause for the use of materials produced in America in the law that the parliament will approve short and that should set the preannuciato stimulus package by $ 825 billion.
A Keynesian state that the effectiveness of an intervention depends on the stimulus: the propensity to consume, the level of taxation and the propensity to import. In this sense, one of the easiest ways to increase the effectiveness of a stimulus package is the adoption of trade barriers. One possibility that has sparked panic among U.S. exporters, worried about possible trade retaliation by other nations. A group of them that includes Boeing, General Electric and is running for cover Cateripillar exerting strong pressure to prevent approval of any such clause.
China, even annoyed by accusations of Geithner responded to the voice of Minister of Commerce, calling for "critical baseless" and reiterated that he had never manipulated its currency. According to Chinese analysts Reuters heard by the politicians of the Eastern country, they controlled their anger in the belief that Geithner and Obama are posing only for domestic issues. Some commentators, however, are beginning to express concern about a possible decrease in the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds by China. an article on Nikkei read the opinion of Yu Yongding, a former member of the Chinese central bank, suggesting his government to sell part of U.S. treasury bonds in its possession and to diversify investments by increasing the purchase of assets denominated in euro and yen. Yu seem to care about a forthcoming decline in the value of U.S. treasury bonds and cash in on China losses in the event.
Even Federico Rampini on the republic, seems vent of a possible rift between China and USA:
not really all'orizzante still seems to be an escape from the Chinese sovereign debt in the U.S. (and in part also went on Rampini the notes). How Brad Setser reports, in November, China has reduced the purchase of U.S. treasury bills in the long term for the amount of U.S. $ 9.2 billion. On the other hand, however, has increased its purchases of short-term debt for good 38.2 billion. In fact, China seems to prefer short-term debt, probably to defend against any fluctuations in the value of long-term bonds more vulnerable to sudden changes. In fact, good for 10 years, went from a minimum return of 2.06% December 30 2.68% last week, an event considered by some to be the first sign of deflation of the bubble on U.S. treasury bonds .
despite some frictions are appearing, I still believe it is still premature to consider a real clash between China and the U.S., although inevitably increase tensions between the two countries in the near future.
Some tensions could arise between Japan and the United States. Another statement issued by Geithner who did more than raise an eyebrow was warning against Japan not to intervene in the currency market to try to contain the appreciation of the yen. Japan is a country heavily dependent on exports. A strong currency is against their economic interests. In December, Japanese exports fell a frightening 35% after a decline of 26.7% the previous month. Several Japanese companies like Honda and Toyota, are threatening to move production abroad if the yen were to continue to appreciate. Sony has announced losses of $ 3 billion, 2 billion more than analysts' expectations and announced licenziamenti per 16000 unità di qui al 2010.
Nonostante gli appelli di Geithner se lo yen dovesse continuare a rivalutarsi il governo del paese del Sol Levante non potrà fare a meno di intervenire sul mercato valutario. La pensa in questa maniera Eisuke Sakakibara, ex vice ministro delle finanze giapponese conosciuto ai più con il soprannome di Mr Yen. In un intervista al Financial Times, Sakakibara ha detto di aspettarsi un intervento da parte del ministero del tesoro, nel caso lo yen dovesse superare quota 85 contro il dollaro. Sakakibara prevede che lo yen si apprezzerà ulteriormente nei confronti del biglietto verde una volta esauritasi "l'Obama euforia".
Non sembra ventilare una qualche reale rottura between Japan and the United States, but believes that the American authorities will be forced to meet the requirements of the Japanese and that the two countries will agree with an intervention aimed at limiting the increase in currency Eastern Europe. According to the Financial Times, Mr. Yen also seems to predict a "global depression" similar to that of the 30's, but as in the case of Pritchard and Buiter, Sakakibara finds comfort in the fact that unlike then, today, governments around the world seem to work together.
We hope that this forced collaboration lasts a long time and that some politicians think twice before opening your mouth.
Meanwhile the banking sectors across the world continue to turn over in an agony that seems to have no end. If Bank of America and Citigroup have proved to be the black hole that many suspected they were, personally, I am also waiting for the worms called Wells Fargo he gives us a few moments of suspense. Interviewed in December, before the recent banking disasters come to light, Meredith Whitney, one of the best analysts on the condition of banks, the question asked by a reporter on CNBC that the bank was made worse answered without hesitation: "Wells Fargo" .
Meanwhile, there is an ongoing debate about how to use i rimanenti 350 miliardi del TARP. L'ipotesi di creare una "bad bank" sembra aleggiare insistentemente tra gli scranni del parlamento americano. Paul Krugman neo premio nobel per l'economia, in una delle rare occasioni in cui ne condivido l'opinione, definisce la possibile istituzione di una "bad bank" come una forma di Wall Street voodo . La "bad bank" si occuperebbe di comprare tramite denaro prelevato dal TARP, tutti quegli assets andati a male che le banche si ritrovano in pancia. Si parla di almeno 100 miliardi che grazie ad un leverage di 10 volte garantito dalla Federal Reserve, fornirebbero 1000 miliardi complessivi alla "bad bank" per i suddetti acquisti. Il problema rimane, la valutazione di questi assets tossici. Lo stesso scoglio which broke up in October, the initial intentions of Paulson on how to use funds from TARP.
Soros summarizes the dilemma by saying the Obama :
is facing the difficult choice that the Obama administration is one of a partial nationalization of banks, or leave them in private hands and just nationalize the toxic assets. Choose the first option would inflict great suffering on a large segment of the population - not just the shareholders of the banks, but also the beneficiaries of pension funds. However, clean air and would start the economy.
The second option would ensure the recognition and come to terms with the painful reality economic, but would put the banking system in the same condition that led to the downfall of the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac The public interest would require banks to resume lending at attractive terms. However, these loans would end up having to be imposed through a government diktat as the personal interest of the lead banks to focus on preserving and rebuilding of its assets.
Given the record, I expect Obama and his embark on the second street, in the belief that it is better to suffer less and longer (provided that it is actually possible).
British banks for their part, continue flirting with nationalization. The rescue plan, drafted by Brown, would extend the program to guarantee loans granted by banks in addition to providing an additional warranty on new loans of 50 billion pounds, ensures that the nationalized Northern Rock will extend loans to customers who show and promises to be worth the purchase of toxic assets to the amount of 50 billion pounds. This is essentially the usual half-measures. An attempt to avoid at all costs nationalization.
Pritchard concludes his analysis on the current situation, pointing out that it closely resembles that of early 1931. For once, however, can also see a bright side: at least not è ancora il 1933" dice. Obama secondo lui, si troverebbe ad affrontare una realtà migliore di quella che toccò a Roosevelt nel 33 ed avrebbe quindi, ancora un certo spazio di manovra a disposizione prima che tutto rischi di diventare ingestibile. In questo senso le scelte che il neo presidente compirà in futuro saranno fondamentali. Dovrà agire con decisione e senza commettere errori perchè, con tutta probabilità, non avrà a disposizione una seconda chance per evitare il precipitare degli eventi.
A proposito di eventi che precipitano: un retroscena interessante riguardo agli avvenimenti che coinvolsero il settore finanziario ad Ottobre, emerge da un articolo del daily mail . All'epoca arrivai a suggerire the readers of this blog to stock up on food. Perhaps someone will have thought it was too alarmist. Paul Myners, minister for the City, Friday, Oct. 10 revealed that the British banking system was found to step away from complete collapse. He was about to set off a frantic race to the banks. The government went into a state of emergency and prepared to implement a total ban on banking transactions which included: the complete closure of establishments, suspension of withdrawals and money transfers and subsequent nationalization of the entire banking sector.
Only frantic communications behind the scenes were able to prevent the bank run and the outbreak of panic. Needless to say, as a result of these statements, have come from many attacks on Lord Myners, who is accused of encouraging a sense of insecurity in the market.
Other statements that have done much to discuss, are those uttered last week by Timothy Geithner. Remember this name well, because often you will hear it say in the future. Belongs to the U.S. Treasury minister-designate. Former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Geithner has held various positions during his career of some significance and is considered a man of establishment ( here is a diagram with its connections). He was one of the main architects of the rescue of Bear Stearns this past spring. Held the post of Secretary Treasure in the Clinton administration under the supervision of Minister Robert Rubin and his successor Lawrence Summers. Rubin
Now, after spending years on the board of directors of Citigroup without noticing any problems in the conduct of the institute, resigned "voluntarily" to go to fill the role of adviser to Obama. Summers in turn presides over the white house, always behind the nomination of Obama, the National Economic Council, a powerful agency whose task is to supervise and give advice on the economic policy of the American administration.
These characters can hardly be considered a big change. They are certainly better than the outgoing minister and Paulson suoi amici. Per trovare di peggio, del resto, Obama avrebbe dovuto, probabilmente, cercare nell'averno. Difficilmente però, questi nuovi protagonisti della politica economica USA potranno contrastare in maniera decisa l'establishment economico, essendone stati membri.
E tanto per cominciare con il piede giusto il neo ministro Geithner, la scorsa settimana, in una nota rivolta al comitato finanziario del senato ha attaccato pubblicamente la Cina :
"Il presidente Obama -- supportato dalle conclusioni di un vasta parte degli economisti -- ritiene che la Cina stia manipolando la sua valuta" ha scritto Geithner in risposta a dei quesiti avanzati da alcuni membri del Senate Finance Committee.
"Il presidente Obama si è impegnato come presidente ad usare in maniera aggressiva tutte le vie diplomatiche disponibili nel perseguimento di una modifica nella politica monetaria Cinese" ha detto Geithner.
Dopo aver letto queste dichiarazioni molti si sono messi le mani nei capelli. Willem Buiter in un recente articolo intitolato: " Quando tutto il resto fallisce, dai la colpa alla Cina ", critica pesantemente l'aggressività mostrata da Geithner e dall'amministrazione USA. Una delle ragioni per cui Buiter ritiene vi sia speranza che l'attuale recessione globale non si trasformi in una seconda Grande Depressione è l'assenza di quella diffusa politica di dazi e barriere commerciali che fece la sua comparsa during the 30 years. Encouraging conflicts with stupid statements, in the midst of the current crisis, it would be anything but constructive and could lead to clashes from unpleasant consequences.
Other entities other hand, have accepted the charges of Geithner with enthusiasm. It 's the case of a group that represents American manufacturing industry, the U.S. Business and Industry Council, led by Kevin Kearns. Kearns took the ball and has invited the new government to erect trade barriers to imports of Chinese goods. Actually, Obama had already announced its intention to introduce a clause for the use of materials produced in America in the law that the parliament will approve short and that should set the preannuciato stimulus package by $ 825 billion.
A Keynesian state that the effectiveness of an intervention depends on the stimulus: the propensity to consume, the level of taxation and the propensity to import. In this sense, one of the easiest ways to increase the effectiveness of a stimulus package is the adoption of trade barriers. One possibility that has sparked panic among U.S. exporters, worried about possible trade retaliation by other nations. A group of them that includes Boeing, General Electric and is running for cover Cateripillar exerting strong pressure to prevent approval of any such clause.
China, even annoyed by accusations of Geithner responded to the voice of Minister of Commerce, calling for "critical baseless" and reiterated that he had never manipulated its currency. According to Chinese analysts Reuters heard by the politicians of the Eastern country, they controlled their anger in the belief that Geithner and Obama are posing only for domestic issues. Some commentators, however, are beginning to express concern about a possible decrease in the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds by China. an article on Nikkei read the opinion of Yu Yongding, a former member of the Chinese central bank, suggesting his government to sell part of U.S. treasury bonds in its possession and to diversify investments by increasing the purchase of assets denominated in euro and yen. Yu seem to care about a forthcoming decline in the value of U.S. treasury bonds and cash in on China losses in the event.
Even Federico Rampini on the republic, seems vent of a possible rift between China and USA:
The Obama administration begins attacking China, and in a flash markets are forced to ask themselves a terrible question: what would happen if Beijing reacted by ceasing to fund the U.S. public debt?
The specter of a fracture in the financial ties Sino-American - "chimera" as he called the economic historian Niall Ferguson - yesterday was the terminus on the most liquid market in the world, one where you exchange the bills issued in Washington. The risks of a US-China trade tensions have rocked the thirty-year Treasury Bonds, one of the titles traditionally considered more secure and a safe haven for investors. The thirty-year T-Bonds have suffered sales that led to a rise in yields, to almost 3.30% on Thursday night just as soon as the U.S. Senate released the text of the hearing of the new secretary to the Treasury Tim Geithner. There include the accusation to China of "manipulating their currency."
E 'strong accusation, no Treasury secretary of the Bush administration had never wanted to express openly. It can pave the way for trade retaliation against the "Made in China. What scared the markets, the possibility of an escalation in protectionist financial Beijing could use the weapon, reducing its purchases of American Treasury bonds. With two trillion dollars of official reserves, the People's Republic is one of the biggest investors in T-Bonds. The last decade of world economic growth is right on the complementarity between the United States and the Republic Popular: the high debt of American consumers was the high amount of savings of Chinese households, the U.S. trade deficit on their way to inflate the currency reserves of China were 'recycled' by Chinese bankers regularly with the signing of American government securities.
not really all'orizzante still seems to be an escape from the Chinese sovereign debt in the U.S. (and in part also went on Rampini the notes). How Brad Setser reports, in November, China has reduced the purchase of U.S. treasury bills in the long term for the amount of U.S. $ 9.2 billion. On the other hand, however, has increased its purchases of short-term debt for good 38.2 billion. In fact, China seems to prefer short-term debt, probably to defend against any fluctuations in the value of long-term bonds more vulnerable to sudden changes. In fact, good for 10 years, went from a minimum return of 2.06% December 30 2.68% last week, an event considered by some to be the first sign of deflation of the bubble on U.S. treasury bonds .
despite some frictions are appearing, I still believe it is still premature to consider a real clash between China and the U.S., although inevitably increase tensions between the two countries in the near future.
Some tensions could arise between Japan and the United States. Another statement issued by Geithner who did more than raise an eyebrow was warning against Japan not to intervene in the currency market to try to contain the appreciation of the yen. Japan is a country heavily dependent on exports. A strong currency is against their economic interests. In December, Japanese exports fell a frightening 35% after a decline of 26.7% the previous month. Several Japanese companies like Honda and Toyota, are threatening to move production abroad if the yen were to continue to appreciate. Sony has announced losses of $ 3 billion, 2 billion more than analysts' expectations and announced licenziamenti per 16000 unità di qui al 2010.
Nonostante gli appelli di Geithner se lo yen dovesse continuare a rivalutarsi il governo del paese del Sol Levante non potrà fare a meno di intervenire sul mercato valutario. La pensa in questa maniera Eisuke Sakakibara, ex vice ministro delle finanze giapponese conosciuto ai più con il soprannome di Mr Yen. In un intervista al Financial Times, Sakakibara ha detto di aspettarsi un intervento da parte del ministero del tesoro, nel caso lo yen dovesse superare quota 85 contro il dollaro. Sakakibara prevede che lo yen si apprezzerà ulteriormente nei confronti del biglietto verde una volta esauritasi "l'Obama euforia".
Non sembra ventilare una qualche reale rottura between Japan and the United States, but believes that the American authorities will be forced to meet the requirements of the Japanese and that the two countries will agree with an intervention aimed at limiting the increase in currency Eastern Europe. According to the Financial Times, Mr. Yen also seems to predict a "global depression" similar to that of the 30's, but as in the case of Pritchard and Buiter, Sakakibara finds comfort in the fact that unlike then, today, governments around the world seem to work together.
We hope that this forced collaboration lasts a long time and that some politicians think twice before opening your mouth.
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