Any worsening climate, however, pales in comparison to changes in the economic sphere and in the same way my personal disgust dell'incessante rain, seems to disappear when compared to the revulsion that some feel towards certain banks and bankers.
Ink paid to write the plan has not yet dried Geithner that Citigroup and Bank of America already have begun to exploit one of the many tricks that it makes available to them kindly. Both banks have turned to hunting for garbage - specifically CDOs - coming to contendersela for higher prices at the price of market price currently is around 30 cents for every dollar of face value (at a reasonable price a market exists for the garbage though Geithner & Co say the opposite). The strategy hinges on the belief that in future the two banking giants be able to pass on the shoulders of the taxpayer by PPIP (Public-Private Investment Program), the above junk to a larger amount than the purchase.
A nice net gain for the banks to recapitalize, which will perhaps in part, but it is certainly not what the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, at least in words, intended to get his plan through.
now approximate the close of the quarter. Event potrebbe anche riservare alcune sorprese.
I CEO dei principali istituti bancari statunitensi, Jamie Dimon della JP Morgan, Ken Lewis di Bank of America insieme a Vikram Pandit presidente della Citigroup rivelarono poco tempo fa che le banche da essi gestite, durante i primi due mesi dell'anno avevano incassato dei profitti. La notizia aveva fatto intravedere la luce a più di un investitore e aveva rilanciato i valori azionari del settore finanziario. Un ritorno all'attivo poteva essere il segnale che una lenta ripresa dell'economia fosse in atto. Musica per le orecchie di chi investe in borsa.
A gelare le aspettative ci hanno pensato gli stessi 3 individui, dichiarando lo scorso venerdì in maniera sincronizzata (neanche si mettessero d'accordo), che durante il mese di Marzo vi sarebbe stato un aggravamento del mercato, con relativo calo dei ricavi.
Mentre tutti si chiedevano perplessi a che gioco stessero giocando i suddetti CEO, un post sul blog di Zero Hedge ha gettato un po' di luce sulla natura dei profitti incassati da Citi, JP Morgan e BofA durante Gennaio e Febbraio. A quanto pare, essi sarebbero merito esclusivo dell'AIG che chiudendo una serie di posizioni ancora aperte su strumenti derivati (CDS) avrebbe incassato consapevolmente ingenti perdite - facendo affidamento sul supporto statale per tappare eventuali buchi - a favore di una serie di banche che hanno potuto così, favoleggiare in giro su un imprevisto ritorno dei profitti.
It comes as no surprise that AIG is being used to funnel money to banks around the world - Goldman Sachs head. In the economic sector throughout the blogosphere has not escaped the game of obfuscation carried out by the U.S., aimed at arousing the indignation of the population against 160 million bonus pocketed by managers and by the former insurance giant at the same time, ignore the gifts made millionaires by the U.S. government, through the AIG itself to major banks. The fact that Obama, even Bernanke and Geithner, is a day on television and no one says much about the media strategy that the administration of U.S. President is taking.
It almost seems like trying to convince and reassure people with words, rather than with concrete actions.
concreteness which he feels a strong need and I personally hope to see materialize in the G20.
As you can guess from the title of this post, my hopes and expectations do not coincide completely. Willem Buiter in a recent article entitled: "G20, do not expect nothing, hope for the best and prepare for the worst" makes a number of suggestions that the G20 would do well to consider.
Buiter calls for a strong commitment to the maintenance of international free trade without restrictions of any kind are imposed, should be increased to 10 times the funds available IMF through the issue of SDRs, and especially looks forward to finally being recognized by all that the collapse of global financial system which has grown abnormally from 1980 onwards. A system that can not be fixed with the patches applied in a coarse, but that would require reaching and comprehensive reforms.
Buiter puts forward some ideas about the kind of reforms to be adopted. All reasonable and quite obvious if we want. So obvious that one would hope were on the agenda of the G20.
Yet, there seems to be only Buiter feel a pungent smell anything coming from the London meeting (on which work will start tomorrow). Even French President Sarkozy seems to have a smell practiced enough :
If the G20 will be 'low-profile, I get up and I'm leaving. "The threat comes from French President Nicolas Sarkozy that some British newspapers would be ready also for a boycott of the G20 which will begin 'in London tomorrow if you do not reach targets.
"France - said a source close to the Elysee - will not accept' a G20 with many words and little action"
Even British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in recent days had subdorando an inconclusive summit even suggesting that was put on the agenda during a further meeting of the G20 the current year. Distrust of Brown, perhaps stems from having seen leaked its draft for the final communiqué of the G20, the same draft that Brown, called for was subsequently signed by all participants at the close of business. In this paper, includes the commitment to help revitalize the global economy through a fiscal stimulus joint $ 2 trillion. One measure that seems to fit them fully with the resolution, which some would feed Brown, April 22 to announce yet another stimulus package for the UK economy. Stimulus to which it had previously opposed Mervyn King the head of the central bank said English when the country's finances do not permit più interventi simili.
Della stessa opinione di King sono sempre state anche Germania e Francia. Entrambi i paesi si sono numerose volte opposti a degli interventi di stimolo coordinati. Non si capisce bene come Brown pensi o pensasse, di riuscire a convincere le due nazioni a contribuire ai sopra citati, 2 trilioni di dollari.
Qualunque strada abbiano in mente di percorrere il leader dei G20 sarà il caso che si sbrighino ad imboccarla.
L'economia non sta certo ad aspettarli e continua il suo inesorabile deterioramento. I dati provenienti dai paesi esportatori sono un incubo. La contrazione delle esportazioni Giapponesi ha toccato un senza precedenti -49% a Febbraio rispetto l'anno precedente, gli ordinativi esteri dell'industria Germany son fell by 37%. According to the OECD in Italy this year and exports will fall by 15.9% and 4.3% of GDP in the face of our government that only a month ago he complained Confidustria for a forecast on the GDP of -2.5 % (later revised a few days ago and increased to -3.5%). Unemployment Italian touch, according to OECD estimates, in 2009 and 9.7% of private consumption will mark a -3%. The English government has just saved his first bank, the Savings Bank of Castilla-La Mancha, by granting a loan of $ 9 billion. Although this is a small institution, the past is anything but reassuring. Ireland's rating was cut yesterday by Standard & Poors, down from AAA to AA + and it is expected that the former Celtic Tiger GDP will contract by 6.5% during the year.
As expected the first taking place also addressed some of the whole euro area countries considered most stable:
In Grenoble the personnel director and three managers of the "Caterpillar "were seized and imprisoned by the workers of the company. The American company wants to lay off 733 people out of 2,500 employees, because sales were down 55%. Obviously, the dismissal of staff is the first and easiest solution to the crisis.
The kidnappers are not criminals or terrorists. Nicolas Benoit, delegate of the CGT trade union, the largest organization of French workers, equivalent of the CGIL, said it will retain them until you are open to negotiate.
addition to the manager about to "rationalize" the activities of enterprises, another target area for the public flogging, appear to have become bankers. Fred Goodwin's former head of Royal Bank of Scotland, a position he left pocketing a million dollar settlement after leading the institution into bankruptcy and forcing the government of his majesty in a hasty nationalization, has been seen to assault the house by a group of angry citizens who, after having prevailed at the sound of stones at the windows of the building have completed their relief smashing the car Goodwin. After this event, and in view of possible protests over the G20 was suggested to all RBS employees to come to work dressed as resigned, so that there is a risk of being mistaken for the bankers.
Managers of the major Swiss banks, but was ordered not to leave the country Switzerland, even for business trips. The fear is that once they landed abroad can be taken by local authorities and subsequently questioned about possible tax evasion facilitated by the institutions for which work. The previous disagreement between the U.S. and UBS launched from Europe and the repeated threats against tax havens are leaving their mark. Among the destinations are prohibited U.S., Germany and France.
He feels well, a faint smell from 1870, when the bankers chased and were chased out of a population that demanded the hanging.
And if too many states still do not seem to have decided to intervene in the economy sharply, major central banks have proved much more active. At the party called QE, are also to join two of the last survivors: the European Central Bank and the Canadian.
The ECB worried by the latest data on the economy fatto capire , tramite il suo vice presidente Lucas Papademos, che potrebbe lanciarsi in misure di quantitative easing arrivando ad acquistare sul mercato secondario bond di diverse società (quali non è dato sapere). Ad essa ha fatto eco la banca centrale canadese ventilando anch'essa il ricorso al QE. Sembra che dopo lo zirp (tasso di interesse 0) globale stiamo finalmente arrivando al quantitative easing globale.
Le banche centrali dunque, si stanno tutte muovendo e nella medesima direzione.
Purtroppo quella odierna non è una crisi che possa essere risolta per via monetaria o indebitando gli stati in modo che l'aumento della spesa pubblica vada a compensare il calo della domanda aggregata.
During the G20, the major nations of the world have the opportunity to lay the groundwork for an economic system that is at least more reasonable than the present, abandoning once and for all the illusion that the situation will soon return to being that of two years ago. That means even begin to redefine the roles consumer / producer in the U.S. and China.
A good first step would be to settle once and for all the banking system, eventually creating smaller banks and better regulated so that would not pose a significant systemic risk. Returning to separate the functions of investment banks than commercial banks. Recapitalising institutions in a decent way, by charging the price to those who deserve it - the shareholders and bondholders. System once and for all the hell the OTC derivatives market, especially that of the CDS.
Unfortunately I do not think any of this happen in London. As Simon Johnson, former IMF chief economist wrote in The Atlantic in a wonderful article , the U.S. prisoners of an oligarchy composed of bankers and financiers. Any government intervention will benefit them regardless of what may be the public interest. A film that Johnson has seen several times during his stay IMF. Usually the performers were in developing countries or countries with the democratic deficit as Russia and Argentina. During each of these cases, the U.S. was there to press because the oligarchs were overridden and sacrificed so that we could effectively apply the reforms necessary for a recovery of the country.
It ironic to note that the U.S. is right now, to behave as those nations which have spent whole decades to criticize.
It 'obvious that Geithner does not want to damage the banking oligarchy or risk to charge the right price to the bondholders of banks, including a host of pension funds already shaky. The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury has recently stated the naked CDS (CDS issued without there being demonstrated by the real intention of the purchaser to secure a debt) should not be prohibited.
To be fair, Geithner should be checked at least admitted that the solvency of the issuer of the CDS, so as to reduce the risk that they will be sold in industrial quantities by companies that they can never pay in case of problems. The basic intention remains the same, however: do not be too hard against the financial of the establishment.
A choice that I find outrageous.
Until you decide that the time has come that some oligarchs pay for their sins never really emerged from the mess we find ourselves immersed. This hour does not seem to be even junta. For this reason I am willing to bet that the G20 will be revealed tomorrow, once again, a meeting of nothingness.
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