The debate about Europe's future is beginning to monopolize the attention of a growing number of analysts and commentators. As has been said many times in this blog, all born from the shaky condition of the European banking system and its exposure to the republics of the Soviet Union.
Yesterday the two main lists Russians were suspended for excess downwards. The event occurred after the sudden collapse of oil prices (the share of crude fell below $ 35 a barrel) and the worsening weather on the country's economic future. Also yesterday, the Polish government finally announced its intention to intervene in support of the local currency . The thing was in the air for some time. A worry is the debt to the Polish authorities that the private sector in the country in recent years has contracted in foreign currency. Not so much of families, which although showing exposed in this way, in their small managed to preserve some moderation in borrowing money, as that of the corporate sector. Polish companies were not as cautious and diversity are at risk of failure in the event of a further weakening of the zloty , the Polish currency, which yesterday arrived at the slightest touch from 5 years to this part against dell'euro.
Ciò che però, ha spaventato gli investitori di mezzo mondo ed ha prodotto il crollo delle borse Europee, colpendo con particolare violenza quella Austriaca (-8,62% ieri), è stato il rilascio da parte di Moody 's (e successivamente di uno simile della Standard & Poor 's) di un rapporto che annunciava un probabile futuro downgrading di quegli istituti bancari Europei che vantano un alta esposizione verso i malmessi paesi del blocco est. L'avvertimento di Moody 's ha scatenato il panico, facendo fuggire gli investitori dalle borse del vecchio continente and that the euro has decreased by 1, 5% against the dollar. The
compromised situation in Europe is also reflecting on the value of gold. Tuesday it has broken several times the highest against the euro. The reasons for these increases are very different from those that brought the yellow metal to touch $ 1,030 an ounce last summer. If at the time its value went hand in hand with that of other raw materials, now it seems to have fully released leading a race of its own. In essence, the hunt for gold is born of bubbles, speculation or the demand for those who really need the precious metal (jewelry, etc.). The increases would be the product a wave of purchases by investors seeking a safe haven in a time of great economic uncertainty, in which the strength of Europe and the euro currency, which many believed to be a viable alternative to the dollar, are seriously put into question . They WOULD BE of gold like so many shipwrecked sailors clinging to a buoy.
Meanwhile politicians of European countries living in conditions worse than they are trying to calm people in every way. The Irish finance minister has warned investors from drawing hasty conclusions about the soundness of the country based on the value of cds (whose value has reached the 386 basis points Tuesday, the highest in Europe) . That English has vehemently denied that there is any possibility that his country declared default and the Greek Minister for the Treasury said annoyed, a few days ago that recent increases demanded by the market rate of interest paid by bonds of Greece would completely unjustified.
statements that seem to convince a few. The situation seems to be quite worrying to have finally pushed a politician of great importance, as the German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck to discuss . Steinbrueck acknowledged the difficulties some of which cross 16 Euro zone countries and especially those in Ireland that he thinks "would be in a very difficult situation." Breaking a taboo that comes from the Maastricht Treaty that it would be forbidden, as never fails to remind the ECB , any possibility of saving a state from the rest of the union, the German minister said that "In reality, other states will rush to rescue those who find it difficult to find."
For most economists the possibility of a disintegration of the euro does not seem even to be taken into account. From an article by Bloomberg :
Le dichiarazioni di Steinbrueck sembrano andare in questa direzione e rappresentano il primo piccolo indizio sulla strada che la Germania ha intenzione di imboccare, per affrontare la spinosa questione di un eventuale salvataggio degli stati che in Europa, versano in gravi condizioni finanziarie. I tedeschi parrebbero quindi manifestare la disponibilità a pagare un certo prezzo per il mantenimento della stabilità dell'intera Unione ed alcune timide indicazioni in this sense WOULD BE starting to come also from France.
Intentions aside, many questions remain unanswered. As rescue and Eastern European states like Ireland, Spain, Greece come to cost? And as France and Germany can realistically afford to pay for this?
All questions that probably will be answered very soon, if the situation does not improve significantly.
Yesterday the two main lists Russians were suspended for excess downwards. The event occurred after the sudden collapse of oil prices (the share of crude fell below $ 35 a barrel) and the worsening weather on the country's economic future. Also yesterday, the Polish government finally announced its intention to intervene in support of the local currency . The thing was in the air for some time. A worry is the debt to the Polish authorities that the private sector in the country in recent years has contracted in foreign currency. Not so much of families, which although showing exposed in this way, in their small managed to preserve some moderation in borrowing money, as that of the corporate sector. Polish companies were not as cautious and diversity are at risk of failure in the event of a further weakening of the zloty , the Polish currency, which yesterday arrived at the slightest touch from 5 years to this part against dell'euro.
Ciò che però, ha spaventato gli investitori di mezzo mondo ed ha prodotto il crollo delle borse Europee, colpendo con particolare violenza quella Austriaca (-8,62% ieri), è stato il rilascio da parte di Moody 's (e successivamente di uno simile della Standard & Poor 's) di un rapporto che annunciava un probabile futuro downgrading di quegli istituti bancari Europei che vantano un alta esposizione verso i malmessi paesi del blocco est. L'avvertimento di Moody 's ha scatenato il panico, facendo fuggire gli investitori dalle borse del vecchio continente and that the euro has decreased by 1, 5% against the dollar. The
compromised situation in Europe is also reflecting on the value of gold. Tuesday it has broken several times the highest against the euro. The reasons for these increases are very different from those that brought the yellow metal to touch $ 1,030 an ounce last summer. If at the time its value went hand in hand with that of other raw materials, now it seems to have fully released leading a race of its own. In essence, the hunt for gold is born of bubbles, speculation or the demand for those who really need the precious metal (jewelry, etc.). The increases would be the product a wave of purchases by investors seeking a safe haven in a time of great economic uncertainty, in which the strength of Europe and the euro currency, which many believed to be a viable alternative to the dollar, are seriously put into question . They WOULD BE of gold like so many shipwrecked sailors clinging to a buoy.
Meanwhile politicians of European countries living in conditions worse than they are trying to calm people in every way. The Irish finance minister has warned investors from drawing hasty conclusions about the soundness of the country based on the value of cds (whose value has reached the 386 basis points Tuesday, the highest in Europe) . That English has vehemently denied that there is any possibility that his country declared default and the Greek Minister for the Treasury said annoyed, a few days ago that recent increases demanded by the market rate of interest paid by bonds of Greece would completely unjustified.
statements that seem to convince a few. The situation seems to be quite worrying to have finally pushed a politician of great importance, as the German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck to discuss . Steinbrueck acknowledged the difficulties some of which cross 16 Euro zone countries and especially those in Ireland that he thinks "would be in a very difficult situation." Breaking a taboo that comes from the Maastricht Treaty that it would be forbidden, as never fails to remind the ECB , any possibility of saving a state from the rest of the union, the German minister said that "In reality, other states will rush to rescue those who find it difficult to find."
For most economists the possibility of a disintegration of the euro does not seem even to be taken into account. From an article by Bloomberg :
"There will necessarily be some kind of package of support for some of the smaller economies in order to avoid tensions and speculation about a possible break-up," said Ken Wattret, economist at the old course BNP Paribas SA in London . "The great national governments will say this is not our problem. But when the nodes will be laid on the need to provide some kind of financial support"According Juergen Michels, an economist at Citigroup Inc . di Londra "Gli stati membri stanno lavorando duramente ad un preventivo "salvataggio di fatto" per cercare di evitare di testare la regola del "nessun salvataggio" imposta da Maastricht.
Le dichiarazioni di Steinbrueck sembrano andare in questa direzione e rappresentano il primo piccolo indizio sulla strada che la Germania ha intenzione di imboccare, per affrontare la spinosa questione di un eventuale salvataggio degli stati che in Europa, versano in gravi condizioni finanziarie. I tedeschi parrebbero quindi manifestare la disponibilità a pagare un certo prezzo per il mantenimento della stabilità dell'intera Unione ed alcune timide indicazioni in this sense WOULD BE starting to come also from France.
Intentions aside, many questions remain unanswered. As rescue and Eastern European states like Ireland, Spain, Greece come to cost? And as France and Germany can realistically afford to pay for this?
All questions that probably will be answered very soon, if the situation does not improve significantly.
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