air of Davos a funny thing. From the beautiful Swiss city in which each year hosts the long-awaited summit of bigwigs of politics and the world economy, Pritchard, the financial journalist's leading Telegraph, he wrote ten days ago, an article that seemed unusually optimistic ventilate a possible resumption, entitled: " Glimmers of hope (glimmers of hope ). His players do not recognize more than usual, went on a rampage, and loudly demanded to know what they did smoke (or drink) in Davos . Pritchard had to justify himself and did so revealing as the positive tone of his article did not reflect his own opinion, but on this occasion had been forced to wear his "hat as a reporter and felt reassured by their readers: "no hope of economic recovery is on the horizon."
recent articles he has written, brutally illustrate this vision.
Pritchard has never been a lover or a pro-European. What emerges clearly from his writings. Yet, considering what they have read your articles in detail the development of events on the landscape of the global economy, not paying attention to what he writes would be unwise. In his latest piece, the reporter of the Telegraph , returns on European issues. The title is emblematic: " fail to save the Eastern Europe will collapse world." I wrote
diverse volte di quanto la situazione dei paesi dell'est Europa sia fondamentale per il futuro dell'Unione stessa e dell'area Euro in particolare.
La scorsa settimana il ministro delle finanze Austriaco cercò freneticamente di mettere insieme un pacchetto di aiuto economico da 150 miliardi di euro, per i paesi dell'est . L'obbiettivo dichiarato non era tanto il salvataggio di quei paesi, quanto la sopravvivenza dell'Austria stessa, dato che le banche del paese hanno investito nell'est Europa una cifra compresa tra il 70% e l'80% del PIL Austriaco, pari a circa 290 miliardi di euro e rischierebbero seriamente la bancarotta in caso di fallimento delle repubbliche ex sovietiche. Si parla dei maggiori istituti della nazione. La Erste Bank, Raiffeisen and also the largest bank of all: the ' Unicredit.
The last quarter Austria, because of a drop in exports, earned the first contraction in GDP of 8 years now. For the moment, it is estimated that the country's GDP will contract by a modest 0.5% in 2009, but am willing to bet that the forecasts will be revised downwards, whereas the export boom that hit the country in biennium 2006-2007: direct exports to third in Germany and another 20% in emerging countries of Eastern Europe. Now Germany has reduced dramatically both production and imports, while the eastern countries are simply collapsing.
Austrian politicians to try to plug the loopholes in the financial sector in recent months have repeatedly announced its intention to grant up to EUR 100 billion of obligations of banks. A final agreement, however, was never reached because of squeamishness the banks themselves who would impose unrealistic conditions the Austrian government. The situation in Austria is becoming increasingly tense. Any form of assistance to the banking sector will impact severely the country's indebtedness. According to a report of the Cabinet Committee on the debt, the bank rescue would come at cost to Austria that triple-A rating of which enabled the last decade, to finance its debt by paying an amount in line with that paid out by the German state.
The funny thing is that the Austrians seem confident that Germany will run to their aid financially, given the close historical and economic ties linking the two countries. The Germans for their part are surprised that the Austrians nurture this belief. It does not seem, however, be only Austria to wait for the big arrival Svolacchia Germany to the rescue, wearing a ridiculous blue tights and red cape. A Article of Times Online casts dark shadows on the Irish situation. loans issued by Irish banks amounted to 11 times the size of its economy. The cost of cds 5 years, a financial instrument that provides an indication of the country risk, has tripled in the last week and touched the 350 basis points last Friday (the highest in Europe). The market short , always seen as more likely a future default Ireland and also in this case, the Times , invoked as the savior of the situation, Germany. It should be charged according to the British newspaper, part of the debt of Ireland, by purchasing treasury bills, through a bear fund (currently studying) set up by the ECB .
Apparently in the old continent, everyone seems to expect the Germans saved the entire Union.
In this regard, the article in the Telegraph says
In essence, they will most likely (as it should be), our cavolacci .
Eastern Europe is imploding.
In Ukraine it is expected that GDP will fall by 12% during the year, the Latvian economy has been declared clinically dead by the central bank governor after a decline of 10.5%, the Hungarian government officially provides a contraction in GDP of 1% per year in corso, ma diversi analisti ritengono più probabile che essa si assesti tra un -2%/-5% e in generale sull'intero blocco est grava quella spada di Damocle dell'indebitamento contratto in valuta straniera. Il 60% della popolazione polacca, ad esempio, si è indebitato in franchi svizzeri. Ogni traumatico indebolimento delle valute locali, produrrà un aumento in termini reali dell'entità del debito ed un aggravarsi delle condizioni economiche generali.
Dato che l'Italia è particolarmente esposta ad un tracollo dell'est Europa, tramite il suo settore bancario - si parla in particolar modo dell' Unicredit - sarebbe molto interessante conoscere la linea di azione che il governo intends to adopt in case of possible problems.
This kind of question has been asked to Davos, by a British journalist to our Finance Minister. A music video made the rounds of the network shows a Tremonti that in response, gets up and walks away angrily without uttering a single word , leaving BBC journalist completely astonished with the microphone in half 'air. The poor man was not accustomed to Italian politicians. Shines from his eyes to the wonder that behavior would be considered obviously abroad incredible (if by chance you have not already done so beware The video ).
Nobody can force another person to answer a question, but there are different ways of behaving. It would be enough to say: "I prefer not to deal with the subject" or dodge the question by saying "we have prepared the appropriate measures, but I'd rather not discuss this bla bla bla . The question was entirely legitimate and I think it would be nice to know if Tremonti did to us poor people, how it will behave in case of significant banking problems.
If the block East collapses el ' Unicredit is to beat cash from mom was that you?
The money we give the example of American? The nationalized institution? The semi-nationalization as they have done with the British Royal Bank of Scotland ?
guess that the answer will a surprise for when the event occurs, but the reaction annoyed Tremonti raises fears that a real plan of action simply does not exist.
The real gem though, our Minister at Davos had already made in 2006 and against an old friend of this blog: Nuriel Roubini .
Both were were invited to a public debate about the future of Europe. The topics to be addressed were numerous: the risk that the current crisis could break up the Union, which countries were most likely to exit from the EU, the consequences of a possible dissolution, etc.. After a bit 'in relation to these digressions, from politicians to the present discussion, Roubini took the floor and starts, in his academic style, to give an overview of the situation in the countries of the continent, until it comes to describing that Italian, comparing the slope that the "beautiful country" has taken to that which characterized the Argentine collapse.
A comparison that I should jump in the eyes of every sensible person who knows at least half the events that led Argentina to the failure.
At that point between the general consternation, Tremonti interrupted considerations Roubini arguing with an incontrovertible "go back in Turkey."
First, we must say that Roubini has never been afraid to say what he thinks, even when his claims were found in contrast with the predictions of the entire economic establishment. Second, although born in Turkey , Roubini has lived 20 years in Italy and graduated from the bites. When he speaks of this country makes him a reason.
response Tremonti sums up the attitude of the classic Italian politicians, with a subtle irony that attitude seems reminiscent of that held by their namesakes Argentina during the period that preceded the collapse of the South American country. The
not responding to anyone, and that presumption quell'arroganza in ways that seem to arise from a sense of superiority ed intoccabilità, la completa mancanza di un reale dibattito su certi temi, le continue distrazioni su questioni secondarie, sono tutte indice di un degrado che in questo paese sembra aggravarsi ogni giorno che passa. Gli scenari che Roubini illustrò al dibattito, prevedevano per l' Italia solo due possibili futuri: cambiare velocemente o uscire dall'Unione Europea dichiarando default sul proprio debito (in sostanza il fallimento). L'UE a suo dire sarebbe conveniente, ma solo per i paesi disposti a riformarsi seriamente, non per i paesi intenzionati a mantenere lo status quo.
Osservando l'Italia ancora oggi, non vedo nessuna reale volontà politica di riformare il paese. Il Pd continues to speak of "great reforms" (whatever they are, will surely be my fault, but I have not understood what they mean) a bit 'as Linus spoke of the "Great Pumpkin" and how in the case of Linus seems to be willing to wait for these reforms, the n a pumpkin patch with his thumb in his mouth and a blanket close to his chest (actually in the English version Linus waiting for "the great pumpkin "but let the beat).
The majority seems to deal with Tutt 'else. Every now Berlusconi shoot a number, on some possibile intervento economico, cifra che sembra cambiare di volta in volta quasi ad assecondare considerazioni a noi ignote come variazioni dell'umidità atmosferica. Per ora, a parte fregnacce come la social card, e gli aiuti per comperarsi la lavatrice o un altra auto non si è visto nulla di significativo. Se hanno intenzione di intervenire in qualche maniera per mitigare l'impatto della crisi, sarà anche il caso che comincino a farlo seriamente e che ci facciano anche sapere cosa intendano fare. Se preferiscono non intervenire allo stesso modo sarebbe carino saperlo. Dire tutto ed il contrario di tutto non aiuta certo a costruire la fiducia.
La mia sensazione è che la politica italiana abbia rinunciato da tempo a cercare di sistemare questa nazione (se mai ci abbia seriamente provato) e che si occupi semplicemente di amministrare lo status quo, cercando nel frattempo di estrarre più ricchezza possibile dal sistema. Un film già visto e dal pessimo finale.
Le riforme di cui parla Roubini sarebbero ben altre e bene o male le conosciamo tutti. Ridurre l'eccessivo peso economico della politica e della burocrazia, aprire l'accesso e creare una vera concorrenza in certe professioni, arrivare a premiare le persone in base ai loro meriti e non alle conoscenze che possono vantare, riformare la giustizia (riformarla davvero, non legarle le mani per paura che i propri crimini vengano scoperti, il costo economico di una giustizia che non funziona è altissimo), riconvertire la base industriale del paese su un altro tipo di produzioni (tradotto: non metterti a fare concorrenza alla cina su produzioni di basso livello) ecc ecc.
Banalità se vogliamo, che sentiamo ripetere da...beh, da che mi ricordo francamente, ma che non ho mai visto affrontare seriamente. Ed il tempo, grazie anche a questa crisi sta per scadere.
In una bella intervista rilasciata alla PBS , il canale pubblico americano, l'ex capo economista dell' FMI , Simon johnson, discouraged compares the U.S. situation to that which has been observed in some third world countries during the occurrence of economic crisis. He sees the nation in the hands of a group of oligarchs, in league with government circles that prefer to adopt measures that go for their own benefit rather than benefit the whole country (it always has been part of the United States, the crisis has simply made the visible problem in the eyes of most observers distracted).
The Italian situation appears similar to that described by Johnson only 20 times worse.
Many consider it probably the shot that made Tremonti nei confronti di Roubini una sciocchezza senza importanza. Del resto se ne sentono tante ogni giorno. Eppure mi pare emblematica di una deriva che avvolge l'intera nazione e che si riflette nei modi e nel linguaggio della politica e quando si scontra con il resto del mondo si rivela nella sua drammaticità. A volte una semplice frase o un atteggiamento nel contesto giusto (o sbagliato se preferite), riesce ad essere più chiarificatrice di mille parole. Quello che le uscite a Davos , di Tremonti , sembrano mettere in luce, è una politica in completa negazione della realtà, priva di una concreta strategia per il futuro e totalmente refrattaria ad ogni serious debate on it.
In the past I have called the U.S. into the wrong hands, to describe the Italian situation I'm frankly running out of adjectives.
recent articles he has written, brutally illustrate this vision.
Pritchard has never been a lover or a pro-European. What emerges clearly from his writings. Yet, considering what they have read your articles in detail the development of events on the landscape of the global economy, not paying attention to what he writes would be unwise. In his latest piece, the reporter of the Telegraph , returns on European issues. The title is emblematic: " fail to save the Eastern Europe will collapse world." I wrote
diverse volte di quanto la situazione dei paesi dell'est Europa sia fondamentale per il futuro dell'Unione stessa e dell'area Euro in particolare.
La scorsa settimana il ministro delle finanze Austriaco cercò freneticamente di mettere insieme un pacchetto di aiuto economico da 150 miliardi di euro, per i paesi dell'est . L'obbiettivo dichiarato non era tanto il salvataggio di quei paesi, quanto la sopravvivenza dell'Austria stessa, dato che le banche del paese hanno investito nell'est Europa una cifra compresa tra il 70% e l'80% del PIL Austriaco, pari a circa 290 miliardi di euro e rischierebbero seriamente la bancarotta in caso di fallimento delle repubbliche ex sovietiche. Si parla dei maggiori istituti della nazione. La Erste Bank, Raiffeisen and also the largest bank of all: the ' Unicredit.
The last quarter Austria, because of a drop in exports, earned the first contraction in GDP of 8 years now. For the moment, it is estimated that the country's GDP will contract by a modest 0.5% in 2009, but am willing to bet that the forecasts will be revised downwards, whereas the export boom that hit the country in biennium 2006-2007: direct exports to third in Germany and another 20% in emerging countries of Eastern Europe. Now Germany has reduced dramatically both production and imports, while the eastern countries are simply collapsing.
Austrian politicians to try to plug the loopholes in the financial sector in recent months have repeatedly announced its intention to grant up to EUR 100 billion of obligations of banks. A final agreement, however, was never reached because of squeamishness the banks themselves who would impose unrealistic conditions the Austrian government. The situation in Austria is becoming increasingly tense. Any form of assistance to the banking sector will impact severely the country's indebtedness. According to a report of the Cabinet Committee on the debt, the bank rescue would come at cost to Austria that triple-A rating of which enabled the last decade, to finance its debt by paying an amount in line with that paid out by the German state.
The funny thing is that the Austrians seem confident that Germany will run to their aid financially, given the close historical and economic ties linking the two countries. The Germans for their part are surprised that the Austrians nurture this belief. It does not seem, however, be only Austria to wait for the big arrival Svolacchia Germany to the rescue, wearing a ridiculous blue tights and red cape. A Article of Times Online casts dark shadows on the Irish situation. loans issued by Irish banks amounted to 11 times the size of its economy. The cost of cds 5 years, a financial instrument that provides an indication of the country risk, has tripled in the last week and touched the 350 basis points last Friday (the highest in Europe). The market short , always seen as more likely a future default Ireland and also in this case, the Times , invoked as the savior of the situation, Germany. It should be charged according to the British newspaper, part of the debt of Ireland, by purchasing treasury bills, through a bear fund (currently studying) set up by the ECB .
Apparently in the old continent, everyone seems to expect the Germans saved the entire Union.
In this regard, the article in the Telegraph says
L 'Europe is already in more serious problems than the ECB or leadears of 'EU had expected. The German economy is contracted at an annual rate of 8, 4% in the fourth quarter. If
Deutsche Bank right the economy will shrink by about 9% before the end of this year. The kind of level that would ignite a popular revolt.
The implications are obvious. Berlin will not save Ireland, Spain, Greece and Portugal, while the collapse of the credit bubble leads to an explosion of defaults , Italy or the EU for accepting the plans of " bond of union ' if the debt market were to take the terrifying trajectory of rising Italian government debt (which 'll have 112% of GDP next year, according to the latest forecasts, up by 101% - a huge change) and not save Austria from Habsburg's adventurism.
In essence, they will most likely (as it should be), our cavolacci .
Eastern Europe is imploding.
In Ukraine it is expected that GDP will fall by 12% during the year, the Latvian economy has been declared clinically dead by the central bank governor after a decline of 10.5%, the Hungarian government officially provides a contraction in GDP of 1% per year in corso, ma diversi analisti ritengono più probabile che essa si assesti tra un -2%/-5% e in generale sull'intero blocco est grava quella spada di Damocle dell'indebitamento contratto in valuta straniera. Il 60% della popolazione polacca, ad esempio, si è indebitato in franchi svizzeri. Ogni traumatico indebolimento delle valute locali, produrrà un aumento in termini reali dell'entità del debito ed un aggravarsi delle condizioni economiche generali.
Dato che l'Italia è particolarmente esposta ad un tracollo dell'est Europa, tramite il suo settore bancario - si parla in particolar modo dell' Unicredit - sarebbe molto interessante conoscere la linea di azione che il governo intends to adopt in case of possible problems.
This kind of question has been asked to Davos, by a British journalist to our Finance Minister. A music video made the rounds of the network shows a Tremonti that in response, gets up and walks away angrily without uttering a single word , leaving BBC journalist completely astonished with the microphone in half 'air. The poor man was not accustomed to Italian politicians. Shines from his eyes to the wonder that behavior would be considered obviously abroad incredible (if by chance you have not already done so beware The video ).
Nobody can force another person to answer a question, but there are different ways of behaving. It would be enough to say: "I prefer not to deal with the subject" or dodge the question by saying "we have prepared the appropriate measures, but I'd rather not discuss this bla bla bla . The question was entirely legitimate and I think it would be nice to know if Tremonti did to us poor people, how it will behave in case of significant banking problems.
If the block East collapses el ' Unicredit is to beat cash from mom was that you?
The money we give the example of American? The nationalized institution? The semi-nationalization as they have done with the British Royal Bank of Scotland ?
guess that the answer will a surprise for when the event occurs, but the reaction annoyed Tremonti raises fears that a real plan of action simply does not exist.
The real gem though, our Minister at Davos had already made in 2006 and against an old friend of this blog: Nuriel Roubini .
Both were were invited to a public debate about the future of Europe. The topics to be addressed were numerous: the risk that the current crisis could break up the Union, which countries were most likely to exit from the EU, the consequences of a possible dissolution, etc.. After a bit 'in relation to these digressions, from politicians to the present discussion, Roubini took the floor and starts, in his academic style, to give an overview of the situation in the countries of the continent, until it comes to describing that Italian, comparing the slope that the "beautiful country" has taken to that which characterized the Argentine collapse.
A comparison that I should jump in the eyes of every sensible person who knows at least half the events that led Argentina to the failure.
At that point between the general consternation, Tremonti interrupted considerations Roubini arguing with an incontrovertible "go back in Turkey."
First, we must say that Roubini has never been afraid to say what he thinks, even when his claims were found in contrast with the predictions of the entire economic establishment. Second, although born in Turkey , Roubini has lived 20 years in Italy and graduated from the bites. When he speaks of this country makes him a reason.
response Tremonti sums up the attitude of the classic Italian politicians, with a subtle irony that attitude seems reminiscent of that held by their namesakes Argentina during the period that preceded the collapse of the South American country. The
not responding to anyone, and that presumption quell'arroganza in ways that seem to arise from a sense of superiority ed intoccabilità, la completa mancanza di un reale dibattito su certi temi, le continue distrazioni su questioni secondarie, sono tutte indice di un degrado che in questo paese sembra aggravarsi ogni giorno che passa. Gli scenari che Roubini illustrò al dibattito, prevedevano per l' Italia solo due possibili futuri: cambiare velocemente o uscire dall'Unione Europea dichiarando default sul proprio debito (in sostanza il fallimento). L'UE a suo dire sarebbe conveniente, ma solo per i paesi disposti a riformarsi seriamente, non per i paesi intenzionati a mantenere lo status quo.
Osservando l'Italia ancora oggi, non vedo nessuna reale volontà politica di riformare il paese. Il Pd continues to speak of "great reforms" (whatever they are, will surely be my fault, but I have not understood what they mean) a bit 'as Linus spoke of the "Great Pumpkin" and how in the case of Linus seems to be willing to wait for these reforms, the n a pumpkin patch with his thumb in his mouth and a blanket close to his chest (actually in the English version Linus waiting for "the great pumpkin "but let the beat).
The majority seems to deal with Tutt 'else. Every now Berlusconi shoot a number, on some possibile intervento economico, cifra che sembra cambiare di volta in volta quasi ad assecondare considerazioni a noi ignote come variazioni dell'umidità atmosferica. Per ora, a parte fregnacce come la social card, e gli aiuti per comperarsi la lavatrice o un altra auto non si è visto nulla di significativo. Se hanno intenzione di intervenire in qualche maniera per mitigare l'impatto della crisi, sarà anche il caso che comincino a farlo seriamente e che ci facciano anche sapere cosa intendano fare. Se preferiscono non intervenire allo stesso modo sarebbe carino saperlo. Dire tutto ed il contrario di tutto non aiuta certo a costruire la fiducia.
La mia sensazione è che la politica italiana abbia rinunciato da tempo a cercare di sistemare questa nazione (se mai ci abbia seriamente provato) e che si occupi semplicemente di amministrare lo status quo, cercando nel frattempo di estrarre più ricchezza possibile dal sistema. Un film già visto e dal pessimo finale.
Le riforme di cui parla Roubini sarebbero ben altre e bene o male le conosciamo tutti. Ridurre l'eccessivo peso economico della politica e della burocrazia, aprire l'accesso e creare una vera concorrenza in certe professioni, arrivare a premiare le persone in base ai loro meriti e non alle conoscenze che possono vantare, riformare la giustizia (riformarla davvero, non legarle le mani per paura che i propri crimini vengano scoperti, il costo economico di una giustizia che non funziona è altissimo), riconvertire la base industriale del paese su un altro tipo di produzioni (tradotto: non metterti a fare concorrenza alla cina su produzioni di basso livello) ecc ecc.
Banalità se vogliamo, che sentiamo ripetere da...beh, da che mi ricordo francamente, ma che non ho mai visto affrontare seriamente. Ed il tempo, grazie anche a questa crisi sta per scadere.
In una bella intervista rilasciata alla PBS , il canale pubblico americano, l'ex capo economista dell' FMI , Simon johnson, discouraged compares the U.S. situation to that which has been observed in some third world countries during the occurrence of economic crisis. He sees the nation in the hands of a group of oligarchs, in league with government circles that prefer to adopt measures that go for their own benefit rather than benefit the whole country (it always has been part of the United States, the crisis has simply made the visible problem in the eyes of most observers distracted).
The Italian situation appears similar to that described by Johnson only 20 times worse.
Many consider it probably the shot that made Tremonti nei confronti di Roubini una sciocchezza senza importanza. Del resto se ne sentono tante ogni giorno. Eppure mi pare emblematica di una deriva che avvolge l'intera nazione e che si riflette nei modi e nel linguaggio della politica e quando si scontra con il resto del mondo si rivela nella sua drammaticità. A volte una semplice frase o un atteggiamento nel contesto giusto (o sbagliato se preferite), riesce ad essere più chiarificatrice di mille parole. Quello che le uscite a Davos , di Tremonti , sembrano mettere in luce, è una politica in completa negazione della realtà, priva di una concreta strategia per il futuro e totalmente refrattaria ad ogni serious debate on it.
In the past I have called the U.S. into the wrong hands, to describe the Italian situation I'm frankly running out of adjectives.
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