Tuesday, while waiting full of curiosity that the American Secretary of the Treasury sorprendesse the world by pulling out of the hat an effective plan for the rescue of U.S. banks, another news broke on economic stage International shaking knees more than one analyst.
A Japanese newspaper, Nikkei, reported the sensational statements by Anatoly Aksakov the head of the Russian Association of Regional Banks. Anatoly stated that Russian banks were in talks with international creditors to restructure $ 400 billion in debt. Reading the article in the Nikkei, which seemed even the Russian state could be at risk of Default. Quick as lightning came the contradicted by the Kremlin:
Following the news released by the Nikkei, the euro has fallen against other currencies. The problem is, as usual, by heavy exposure to the Euro area banks have towards Russia and around the block east. In the chart below you can see how the banks of every European nation will be stuck with the countries of the East:
A Japanese newspaper, Nikkei, reported the sensational statements by Anatoly Aksakov the head of the Russian Association of Regional Banks. Anatoly stated that Russian banks were in talks with international creditors to restructure $ 400 billion in debt. Reading the article in the Nikkei, which seemed even the Russian state could be at risk of Default. Quick as lightning came the contradicted by the Kremlin:
The Russian government has denied it to be considering a plan to restructure the debt on the private sector and to be treating this issue with foreign banks. Indiscretion, which this morning has put pressure on the euro.The Russia despite official denials remains a watchlist. Many of the international lenders seem willing to press for the government itself is to act as guarantor for the debt of Russian banks. Russia is going through a difficult period because of international crisis and the collapse of oil prices, which has deprived the country of his primary source of revenue. The deficit for 2009 was revised upwards and it is estimated will reach to touch 9% of GDP. Capital flight has now bled the economy plunging value of the ruble. Initially, the country's political, from the top third of the world's currency reserves (600 billion dollars), did not bother too much about what was happening, considering have enough firepower on hand to meet the situation. After consuming one third of the available reserves in a vain attempt to shore up the ruble, have had to surrender. They decided to allow the devaluation of the Russian currency up to a maximum of 10% threshold above which the government and the country's banks have agreed to intervene.
"The Government of the Russian Federation has no plans to consider the issue of corporate debt restructuring of banks and Russian companies, "he assured today the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin." There are no Government plans of this type. The news about negotiations with foreign banks on a restructuring plan (of course) do not reflect reality, "he said shortly before the spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Even the Association of Regional Banks has denied that he had asked the Russian government to renegotiate the debt by $ 400 billion with international banks. Furthermore, the situation of the Russian financial system remains very uncertain. The banks have already got 50 billion dollars in aid from the government through the VEB (the Russian Development Bank) to refinance debt maturing in 2008.
Following the news released by the Nikkei, the euro has fallen against other currencies. The problem is, as usual, by heavy exposure to the Euro area banks have towards Russia and around the block east. In the chart below you can see how the banks of every European nation will be stuck with the countries of the East:
Austria, Italia, Germania, Francia, Belgio sono gli stati maggiormente esposti. Ogni scossone del blocco est si rifletterà inevitabilmente su di essi ed impatterà sul valore della moneta unica. Non sono un grande fan dell'Europa (per come è stata costituita almeno), ma mi rendo conto come nella situazione odierna sia indispensabile mantenere la compattezza dell'intera Unione. Gli screzi invece sembrano moltiplicarsi. Dopo le proteste degli operai Inglesi nei confronti di quelli Italiani e Portoghesi assunti dalla Total in seguito alla vittoria, da parte di quest'ultima, di un appalto per una raffineria in territorio inglese, ci si è messo anche Sarkozy ad alimentare le tensioni with a series of attacks some Eastern European countries:
within Europe and anti-immigration protectionist pressures seem to accumulate on purely financial side of bonds is a strange thing happens. Yesterday, an auction of German bunds with a maturity of 10 years, amounting to € 6 billion, not enough demand met: 20% of vouchers has remained unsold. It 's the second time in a row that such an event occurs, then it is not an isolated case. The first time it happened, last month, the 10-year bund offered a 3% yield, a 3.28% yesterday.
By contrast, Greece, one of the most run-down EU countries financially, on Monday posted without problems 7 billion of treasury bills, the Netherlands on Tuesday sold 6.5 billion in a good 10 years and Italy recently , ha spacciato senza problemi 12 miliardi in debito a breve termine.
Gli investitori insomma, starebbero snobbando i sicuri bund tedeschi alla ricerca di rendimenti più alti, senza curarsi di un eventuale fallimento degli stati Europei più malconci. Evidentemente ritengono estremamente improbabile che un paese all'interno dell'area Euro possa fallire veramente. Tutta questa sicurezza potrebbe nascere dalla convinzione che il resto dell'Europa, Germania in primis, interverrebbe in caso di necessità fornendo assistenza economica agli stati in difficoltà.
In un articolo sul Telegraph del 9 Febbraio, il solito Pritchard rivela un retroscena interessante:
If Germany were to be, somehow, also called into question with regard to the indebtedness Irish, English, Greek or Italian would become perfect sense to invest in those bonds which offer a performance at the European level greater than the German bund. Merkel has always tried to avoid this possibility. He does not want to foot the bill for the other EU states. We'll see how it will be able to resist, especially when it reappeared on the horizon the specter of insolvency for the European banking sector.
Yesterday the Telegraph, has revealed the existence of a confidential report of the European Commission that would cover the toxic assets these banks' balance sheets of the old continent. The article gave figures up until yesterday, but apparently someone decided to edit it for reasons I do not know. May have been wrong or someone figures might be considered wiser not to give precise. The first article of the amendment said that the total assets of toxic in pancia alle banche Europee ammonterebbe a 16,3 trilioni di sterline (si non avete letto male). Più del PIL Europeo che nel 2008 si è aggirato intorno ai 15 trilioni di dollari. A bilancio le banche dell'Unione terrebbero complessivamente 41,2 trilioni di euro di assets (36,9 trilioni di sterline).
In sostanza quasi la metà degli assets in loro possesso risulterebbe tossica. Quante perdite si annidino realmente in questi assets non è dato sapere, ma si parla potenzialmente di centinaia di miliardi. A riguardo l'articolo del telegraph si limita a dire:
Spero siate tutti pronti per i "festeggiamenti" futuri.
PS: Di seguito riporto i passi salienti (quelli con le cifre per intenderci) presenti nell'articolo del Telegraph prima che esso fosse modificato. Prendeteli dal verso che preferite:
Prague have just swallowed the latest expressions of Nicolas Sarkozy that the French industries that produce cars in the Czech Republic will then sell them in France should be "relocated ". Build factories in India to sell to the Indians, said Sarkozy would be "justified, but works in the Czech Republic to sell in France," much less. From Prague replied piqued, branding the last exit of the French president as a not so veiled attempt to enact protectionist measures.E' interessante notare come per Sarkozy sia meglio delocalizzare in India invece di farlo all'interno dell'Unione Europea (come se le auto costruite in India non potessero essere poi esportate in Europa). La ragione delle sparate del presidente francese va ricercata nel prossimo aid package that France will launch to support its auto companies, Renault and PeugeotPrime Minister Topolanek, the difficult diplomatic position of having to drive the Union europea fino alla fine di giugno, si è detto “stupito” delle parole di Sarkozy, tirando anche in ballo Lisbona. “Se qualcuno voleva rallentare il processo di ratifica non avrebbe potuto scegliere un momento e un’occasione migliori”. Il riferimento è al processo di ratifica del trattato, al momento fermo al Parlamento ceco che, dopo numerosi ritardi, dovrebbe esprimersi con un voto il 17 febbraio.
The package of support for the French auto industry has come under the lens European Antitrust, prompting vehement criticism by the Czech prime minister and president end of June, Mirek Topolanek. The European Commission has written to France asking for "clarifications" on the 6.5 billion aid plan for Renault and Peugeot-Citroen. This was announced by EU Antitrust spokesman Jonathan Todd. "If the French measures are not compatible with the rules on aid, then it would violate EU rules," he added. In particular, Todd said that "the obligation of recipients to invest only in France or to purchase components from suppliers in France is not compatible "with European standards.Czech Prime Minister, I think, has come even to threaten his country's rejection by the Treaty of Lisbon. An empty threat, of course, that is immediately returned as soon as tempers have calmed down. Now Topolanek, it is said to have convinced his the full support of Mr Sarkozy. If
However, "we have not reached any conclusion on the French measures. We are concerned about what we read in the press. " One point on which he insisted the President of the European Union Mirek Topolanek, who accused the government of Sarkozy of "betraying the euro project" and violate "EU rules in their statements and their actions practice . Even the President of the EU has called into question the future existence of the euro, "If member states - he said - still prefer to conduct guided by the individualistic and protectionism, while continuing to violate the principles laid down by the 'Stability and development', there is great danger that the whole project of the European single currency could sink. "
within Europe and anti-immigration protectionist pressures seem to accumulate on purely financial side of bonds is a strange thing happens. Yesterday, an auction of German bunds with a maturity of 10 years, amounting to € 6 billion, not enough demand met: 20% of vouchers has remained unsold. It 's the second time in a row that such an event occurs, then it is not an isolated case. The first time it happened, last month, the 10-year bund offered a 3% yield, a 3.28% yesterday.
By contrast, Greece, one of the most run-down EU countries financially, on Monday posted without problems 7 billion of treasury bills, the Netherlands on Tuesday sold 6.5 billion in a good 10 years and Italy recently , ha spacciato senza problemi 12 miliardi in debito a breve termine.
Gli investitori insomma, starebbero snobbando i sicuri bund tedeschi alla ricerca di rendimenti più alti, senza curarsi di un eventuale fallimento degli stati Europei più malconci. Evidentemente ritengono estremamente improbabile che un paese all'interno dell'area Euro possa fallire veramente. Tutta questa sicurezza potrebbe nascere dalla convinzione che il resto dell'Europa, Germania in primis, interverrebbe in caso di necessità fornendo assistenza economica agli stati in difficoltà.
In un articolo sul Telegraph del 9 Febbraio, il solito Pritchard rivela un retroscena interessante:
I ministri delle finanze EU to discuss, at a breakfast in Brussels, the proposal to create some form of "agency debt" or a mechanism for the bond issue at EU level, a move seen by many diplomats as an attempt to ambush the against Germany, to force her to share some responsibility on the debt of EU countries - a real anathema to Berlin.
If Germany were to be, somehow, also called into question with regard to the indebtedness Irish, English, Greek or Italian would become perfect sense to invest in those bonds which offer a performance at the European level greater than the German bund. Merkel has always tried to avoid this possibility. He does not want to foot the bill for the other EU states. We'll see how it will be able to resist, especially when it reappeared on the horizon the specter of insolvency for the European banking sector.
Yesterday the Telegraph, has revealed the existence of a confidential report of the European Commission that would cover the toxic assets these banks' balance sheets of the old continent. The article gave figures up until yesterday, but apparently someone decided to edit it for reasons I do not know. May have been wrong or someone figures might be considered wiser not to give precise. The first article of the amendment said that the total assets of toxic in pancia alle banche Europee ammonterebbe a 16,3 trilioni di sterline (si non avete letto male). Più del PIL Europeo che nel 2008 si è aggirato intorno ai 15 trilioni di dollari. A bilancio le banche dell'Unione terrebbero complessivamente 41,2 trilioni di euro di assets (36,9 trilioni di sterline).
In sostanza quasi la metà degli assets in loro possesso risulterebbe tossica. Quante perdite si annidino realmente in questi assets non è dato sapere, ma si parla potenzialmente di centinaia di miliardi. A riguardo l'articolo del telegraph si limita a dire:
"La stima delle perdite totali su questi assets, suggerisce che le spese di budget - attuali e contingenti - per il sostegno alle banche, potrebbero essere molto elevate in termini assoluti in relazione al PIL degli stati membri" avverte il documento della commmissione Europa, visionato dal The Daily Telegraph.L'articolo aggiunge:
Anche se non si parla (ancora) o non si vuole parlare di cifre, tutto fa pensare che la festa in Europa sia appena cominciata.Lo scenario descritto dalla commissione è significativo a causa del ruolo che gli ufficiali della UE giocheranno nel disegnare le regole per valutare gli assets "tossici" in possesso delle banche, verso la fine di questo mese. Nuove manovre per salvare le banche saranno discusse ad un summit di emergenza alla fine di Febbraio. L'UE è profondamente preoccupata dall'aumentare dello spread sui bonds venduti dai differenti paesi Europei.
Spero siate tutti pronti per i "festeggiamenti" futuri.
PS: Di seguito riporto i passi salienti (quelli con le cifre per intenderci) presenti nell'articolo del Telegraph prima che esso fosse modificato. Prendeteli dal verso che preferite:
European Commission officials have estimated that “impaired assets” may amount to 44pc of EU bank balance sheets. The Commission estimates that so-called financial instruments in the ‘trading book’ total £12.3 trillion (13.7 trillion euros), equivalent to about 33pc of EU bank balance sheets.
In addition, so-called 'available for sale instruments' worth £4trillion (4.5 trillion euros), or 11pc of balance sheets, are also added by the Commission to arrive at the headline figure of £16.3 trillion.
Banks account for their assets in different ways. Assets put into the “trading book” have to be marked to current market values, while those in the “banking book” are loans and other assets which the institution believes it can hold to maturity. Other assets are classified as “available for sale”, which are also marked to market values.
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